Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)
Valuation Overview•Is Midland States Bancorp, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Fragile underlying quality score of 34/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
MSBI struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-25.2%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $107.3M | -14.4% | — | — | +10.4% | |
| EBITDA | -$3.2M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$2.9M | -426.7% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.24 | -565.2% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$8.9M | -29.1% | -20.9% | -24.7% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 56.3% | 50.4% | 62.0% | 71.3% |
| Operating Margin | -25.2% | 1.3% | 13.1% | 15.4% |
| Net Margin | -27.3% | -2.5% | 8.3% | 10.3% |
| FCF Margin | 26.9% | 28.5% | 49.4% | 64.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.60 | $0.79 | +31.7% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.75 | $-0.13 | -117.6% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.70 | $0.53 | -24.3% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.61 | $0.24 | -60.7% | ||
| Q3'25 | — | $0.55 | — | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.63 | $0.44 | -30.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.63 | $-0.05 | -107.8% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.64 | $0.74 | +15.6% |
Total return is +88.5% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +63.5%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +41.8% | +32.5% | — |
| 1Y | +88.5% | +63.5% | +7.9% |
| 3YCAGR | +16.9% | -3.0% | +18.0% |
| 5YCAGR | +6.4% | -6.9% | +23.3% |
| 10YCAGR | +6.1% | -7.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Midland States Bancorp, Inc. appears Slightly cheap versus peers compared to industry peers.
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $32.76 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $26.50 (implying -10.0% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 34/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -7.3%.
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. pays a 4.3% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 10 years of growth, supplemented by a 1.5% buyback yield.
Midland States Bancorp, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved -14.4% 1Y revenue growth and -565.2% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 4 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 42% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -10.0% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Midland States Bancorp, Inc. include: -22.9% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.93x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.