MODEL VERDICT
Minerals Technologies Inc. (MTX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $75.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $71.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $72.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $71.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $73.02 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $108.77 | +43.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $185.49 | +144.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $83.14 | +9.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $219.22 | +188.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $97.13 | +27.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $126.58 | +66.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $91.53 | +20.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $83.14 | +9.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $116.58 | +53.5% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.97 | 15.76 | 14.74 | 27.64 | 4.97 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.63 | 14.04 | 11.03 | 51.89 | 14.38 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.20 | 8.05 | 6.95 | 9.47 | 0.79 |
| P/FCF | 26.00 | 16.76 | 11.67 | 85.11 | 26.28 |
| P/FFO | 11.98 | 9.27 | 8.45 | 26.29 | 6.43 |
| P/TBV | 4.35 | 4.30 | 3.06 | 5.87 | 0.86 |
| P/AFFO | 15.27 | 13.80 | 11.61 | 23.75 | 4.33 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.35 | 1.38 | 1.09 | 1.57 | 0.15 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.13 | 1.13 | 0.92 | 1.33 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates MTX's fair value at $116.58 vs the current price of $75.96, implying +53.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $116.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $98.79 (P10) to $138.25 (P90), with a median of $118.11.
MTX's current P/E of -128.7x compares to the industry median of 29.8x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -531.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.0x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover MTX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $68.00 (range: $68.00 — $68.00), implying -10.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MTX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.