MODEL VERDICT
nCino, Inc. (NCNO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $16.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $15.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $16.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $18.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $25.60 | Below threshold | -28.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $18.39 | +13.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $3.80 | -76.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $9.05 | -43.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $7.38 | -54.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $16.49 | +2.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $16.84 | +4.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $9.06 | -43.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $30.64 | +89.8% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 408.65 | 297.23 | 55.31 | 984.86 | 441.28 |
| P/TBV | 56.42 | 52.30 | 13.79 | 105.08 | 34.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.22 | 3.61 | 2.39 | 37.82 | 13.92 |
| P/S Ratio | 17.81 | 11.46 | 5.46 | 46.98 | 15.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates NCNO's fair value at $30.64 vs the current price of $16.14, implying +89.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $30.64 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.36 (P10) to $55.25 (P90), with a median of $29.64.
NCNO's current P/E of -48.9x compares to the industry median of 26.2x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -286.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover NCNO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $33.25 (range: $27.00 — $36.00), implying +106.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (11), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NCNO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.