MODEL VERDICT
NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $10.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $10.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $9.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $10.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $13.90 | Below threshold | -26.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $7.16 | -34.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $7.52 | -30.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 42 bank peers | $4.06 | -62.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $7.48 | -31.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 41 analyst estimates | $7.81 | -28.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.80 | -18.9% | 100% | 72 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (21%) | $10 | $12 | $13 | $15 | $16 |
| Conservative (33%) | $11 | $13 | $15 | $16 | $18 |
| Base Case (51.4%) | $13 | $15 | $16 | $18 | $20 |
| Bull Case (69%) | $14 | $16 | $18 | $21 | $23 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 21.29 | 18.60 | 14.27 | 33.70 | 8.60 |
| P/FCF | 16.38 | 14.74 | 7.89 | 26.50 | 9.41 |
| P/FFO | 20.11 | 19.30 | 10.81 | 31.02 | 9.63 |
| P/TBV | 4.87 | 4.80 | 4.07 | 5.60 | 0.64 |
| P/AFFO | 21.63 | 21.97 | 10.96 | 31.63 | 10.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.95 | 2.88 | 1.98 | 4.05 | 0.74 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.73 | 1.53 | 1.23 | 2.75 | 0.63 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates NRDS's fair value at $8.80 vs the current price of $10.85, implying -18.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.13 (P10) to $10.31 (P90), with a median of $8.69.
NRDS's current P/E of 17.0x compares to the industry median of 11.2x (41 peers in the group). This represents a +51.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
6 analysts cover NRDS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $16.00 (range: $14.00 — $18.00), implying +47.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NRDS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (1.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7980.0% to approximately $2. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.