Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$10.14
→
Intrinsic$0.00
-100%
$0.00$0.00$0.00
NVAX's FCF is temporarily suppressed due to reinvestment (actual margin: -22.3%). Valuation uses normalized cash flow (8% target margin) to reflect long-term earnings power.
Current price reflects expectations beyond normalized FCF — likely anticipating margin expansion, capital returns, or segment dominance.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 10% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 12% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 14% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Bull Case
Bear Case
- Trading 100% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$-250.19MNormalized (8% margin)
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
⚡ Reinvestor Mode: FCF margin is -22.3% (below 5% threshold). Using Revenue × 8% to reflect long-term earnings power.
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses normalized FCF (Revenue × 8%) due to reinvestment-suppressed margins. See FAQ below for full methodology.