Novavax, Inc. (NVAX)
Estimates & Forecasts•Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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NVAX Price Targets Summary| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $-545M | $-187M | $440M | $181M | $517M | $884M | $1.1B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-5.41 | $-1.23 | $2.54 | $1.01 | $2.62 | $4.08 | $4.67 |
| YoY Growth | — | — | — | -58.9% | +186.2% | +70.8% | +26.0% |
| Net Margin | -98.0% | -27.5% | 39.2% | 23.8% | 46.5% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
USD · NVAX · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.1B | $761M | $1.1B | $1.8B | $2.2B |
| Net Income | $440M | $181M | $517M | $884M | $1.1B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.54 | $1.01 | $2.62 | $4.08 | $4.67 |
| Free Cash Flow | $-250M | $93M | $223M | $355M | $447M |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying NVAX stock.
Novavax, Inc.'s projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $1.01. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 33/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Novavax, Inc.: Bear case $N/A, Base case $10, and Bull case $9. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Novavax, Inc.'s projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is 27.6%, reaching approximately $0.8B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 33/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Currently expanding margins support higher forecast reliability. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Novavax, Inc.'s forward operating margin is estimated at 32.8% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "expanding". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($N/A) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is above Wall Street consensus with a 352.3% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 27% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.