MODEL VERDICT
UiPath Inc. (PATH) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $10.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $10.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $11.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $12.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $16.32 | Below threshold | -20.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $10.60 | -1.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $8.19 | -23.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $10.22 | -4.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $10.39 | -3.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $8.03 | -25.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $8.50 | -20.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.25 | +191.3% | 100% | 57 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 305.44 | 30.03 | 24.57 | 861.73 | 481.77 |
| P/TBV | 15.83 | 5.24 | 3.72 | 58.92 | 24.14 |
| P/B Ratio | 14.55 | 4.97 | 3.55 | 53.53 | 21.84 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.86 | 7.71 | 5.48 | 36.85 | 13.16 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates PATH's fair value at $31.25 vs the current price of $10.73, implying +191.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.16 (P10) to $94.56 (P90), with a median of $36.96.
PATH's current P/E of -82.5x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -459.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
24 analysts cover PATH with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $16.30 (range: $14.00 — $19.00), implying +51.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (17), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PATH.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.