MODEL VERDICT
PEDEVCO Corp. (PED)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $17.97 | CURRENT | -19.1% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $18.18 | Pending | -8.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $0.84 | -95.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $3.15 | -82.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 44 industry peers | $1.35 | -92.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 43 industry peers | $0.65 | -96.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 44 industry peers | $1.57 | -91.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 52 industry peers | $1.05 | -94.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 52 industry peers | $0.74 | -95.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 41 industry peers | $3.15 | -82.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 44 industry peers | $1.35 | -92.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $387.46 | +2056.1% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 76× | 83× | 90× (Current) | 97× | 104× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 |
| Conservative (7%) | $16 | $18 | $19 | $21 | $22 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $17 | $18 | $20 | $21 | $23 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 | $24 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1468.75 | 369.23 | 3.20 | 5133.33 | 2460.68 |
| EV/EBIT | 330.32 | 306.87 | 3.36 | 704.16 | 287.75 |
| EV/EBITDA | 523.20 | 133.38 | 66.74 | 1995.62 | 827.60 |
| P/FCF | 31053.02 | 395.07 | 57.19 | 181727.38 | 73827.70 |
| P/FFO | 114.20 | 119.25 | 2.85 | 274.39 | 104.65 |
| P/TBV | 16.82 | 16.12 | 10.10 | 28.83 | 6.35 |
| P/AFFO | 335.10 | 158.61 | 4.61 | 1018.57 | 471.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 16.82 | 16.12 | 10.10 | 28.83 | 6.35 |
| P/S Ratio | 98.25 | 62.64 | 35.11 | 270.60 | 84.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates PED's fair value at $387.46 vs the current price of $17.97, implying +2056.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $387.46 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $23.06 (P10) to $1837.35 (P90), with a median of $481.72.
PED's current P/E of 89.8x compares to the industry median of 15.8x (41 peers in the group). This represents a +469.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1468.7x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
2 analysts cover PED with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $2.40 (range: $2.40 — $2.40), implying -86.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PED's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (128.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 718100.0% to approximately $1308. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.