MODEL VERDICT
Ring Energy, Inc. (REI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $1.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $1.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 2, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $1.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Mar 27, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $1.58 | Below threshold | -3.2% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $1.50 | Below threshold | -16.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $1.68 | -7.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $2.15 | +18.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $1.83 | +0.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $1.34 | -26.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $0.21 | -88.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $1.01 | -44.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $2.19 | +20.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $1.70 | -6.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1.48 | -18.5% | 100% | 80 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.24 | 4.00 | 2.51 | 76.00 | 32.32 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.57 | 6.56 | 4.49 | 31.65 | 10.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.55 | 3.29 | 2.85 | 4.56 | 0.71 |
| P/FCF | 6.40 | 5.97 | 1.70 | 14.18 | 4.32 |
| P/FFO | 2.75 | 1.79 | 1.47 | 6.82 | 2.29 |
| P/TBV | 0.41 | 0.34 | 0.16 | 0.92 | 0.25 |
| P/AFFO | 13.70 | 7.46 | 5.52 | 28.12 | 12.53 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.41 | 0.34 | 0.16 | 0.92 | 0.25 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.43 | 1.41 | 0.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates REI's fair value at $1.48 vs the current price of $1.82, implying -18.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.26 (P10) to $1.86 (P90), with a median of $1.54.
REI's current P/E of -0.0x compares to the industry median of 13.8x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -100.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.2x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover REI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $2.50 (range: $2.50 — $2.50), implying +37.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for REI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.