MODEL VERDICT
Impinj, Inc. (PI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $147.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $123.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $112.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $108.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $101.54 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $118.77 | -19.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $127.58 | -13.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $119.12 | -19.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $85.60 | -41.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $99.32 | -32.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $101.45 | -31.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $133.71 | -9.2% | 100% | 69 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 132.48 | 111.05 | 38.50 | 247.90 | 106.33 |
| P/TBV | 821.60 | 31.94 | 4.66 | 4613.85 | 1859.91 |
| P/B Ratio | 52.60 | 26.46 | 4.51 | 178.84 | 66.14 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.47 | 10.82 | 3.70 | 14.11 | 3.52 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates PI's fair value at $133.71 vs the current price of $147.21, implying -9.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $133.71 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $97.14 (P10) to $162.38 (P90), with a median of $128.27.
PI's current P/E of -397.9x compares to the industry median of 49.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -906.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover PI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $180.00 (range: $144.00 — $220.00), implying +22.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.