MODEL VERDICT
PRA Group, Inc. (PRAA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $15.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $10.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $10.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $11.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $17.55 | Pending | -36.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $20.95 | +33.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $50.40 | +220.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 42 bank peers | $31.24 | +98.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $22.11 | +40.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 41 analyst estimates | $19.01 | +20.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.66 | +88.3% | 100% | 91 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $9 | $13 | $16 | $20 | $24 |
| Conservative (5%) | $9 | $13 | $17 | $21 | $24 |
| Base Case (-1.1%) | $9 | $12 | $16 | $19 | $23 |
| Bull Case (-2%) | $9 | $12 | $16 | $19 | $23 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.98 | 12.30 | 11.49 | 19.21 | 3.26 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.02 | 22.30 | 16.29 | 31.45 | 6.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.70 | 16.31 | 11.65 | 44.63 | 11.14 |
| P/FCF | 47.94 | 18.34 | 14.34 | 161.54 | 63.86 |
| P/FFO | 11.94 | 11.15 | 10.15 | 15.97 | 2.24 |
| P/TBV | 1.80 | 1.69 | 1.04 | 2.69 | 0.57 |
| P/AFFO | 13.79 | 12.12 | 10.68 | 19.33 | 3.57 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.13 | 1.05 | 0.69 | 1.72 | 0.35 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.44 | 1.39 | 0.73 | 2.08 | 0.43 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates PRAA's fair value at $29.66 vs the current price of $15.75, implying +88.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $25.08 (P10) to $36.65 (P90), with a median of $30.73.
PRAA's current P/E of 8.8x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (41 peers in the group). This represents a -24.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.0x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
13 analysts cover PRAA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $26.00 (range: $26.00 — $26.00), implying +65.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PRAA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (7.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9890.0% to approximately $31. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.