MODEL VERDICT
QXO, Inc. (QXO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $23.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $25.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $27.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $23.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $25.00 | Below threshold | -6.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $7.90 | -67.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $583.61 | +2336.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $195.80 | +717.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $3535.32 | +14661.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $3744.63 | +15535.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $584.32 | +2339.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $623163.08 | +2601833.5% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 404005.49 | 217578.84 | 27.90 | 994409.73 | 522747.53 |
| EV/EBITDA | 40036.88 | 41454.70 | 12.55 | 77225.58 | 31671.33 |
| P/FCF | 161271.08 | 31346.03 | 0.65 | 807674.08 | 318652.82 |
| P/FFO | 27143.57 | 24907.48 | 0.82 | 71306.08 | 28512.32 |
| P/TBV | 13720.86 | 14751.60 | 0.15 | 31869.62 | 11088.38 |
| P/AFFO | 29243.70 | 26433.76 | 1.81 | 78464.07 | 31227.49 |
| P/B Ratio | 5415.97 | 6404.54 | 0.01 | 9605.16 | 3911.01 |
| Div Yield | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.89 | 0.36 |
| P/S Ratio | 1105.40 | 1249.25 | 0.02 | 2155.14 | 849.78 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates QXO's fair value at $623163.08 vs the current price of $23.95, implying +2601833.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $623163.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $54945.41 (P10) to $1718913.65 (P90), with a median of $533040.26.
QXO's current P/E of -38.0x compares to the industry median of 26.2x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -245.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover QXO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $30.00 (range: $26.00 — $35.00), implying +25.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for QXO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.