MODEL VERDICT
Ralliant Corp. (RAL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $66.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $60.17 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $61.87 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $61.55 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $59.35 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $64.09 | -3.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $56.98 | -13.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $97.61 | +47.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $55.47 | -16.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $86.70 | +31.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $96.87 | +46.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $89.87 | +36.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $97.61 | +47.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $77.39 | +17.1% | 100% | 51 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates RAL's fair value at $77.39 vs the current price of $66.08, implying +17.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 51/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $77.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $63.77 (P10) to $82.13 (P90), with a median of $72.93.
RAL's current P/E of -6.1x compares to the industry median of 34.6x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -117.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover RAL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $59.17 (range: $45.00 — $67.00), implying -10.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 51/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RAL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.