MODEL VERDICT
Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RIGL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $29.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $30.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $32.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $32.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $29.20 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $181.89 | +518.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $69.63 | +136.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $309.56 | +952.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $57.11 | +94.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $84.83 | +188.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $59.75 | +103.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $59.43 | +102.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $64.98 | +121.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $259.05 | +781.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $54.08 | +83.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $145.88 | +396.2% | 100% | 84 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 6× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $81 | $81 | $81 | $81 | $122 |
| Conservative (7%) | $83 | $83 | $83 | $83 | $124 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $86 | $86 | $86 | $86 | $129 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $88 | $88 | $88 | $88 | $133 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 35.43 | 10.67 | 9.57 | 86.04 | 43.84 |
| P/TBV | 10.27 | 10.77 | 2.20 | 17.36 | 7.06 |
| P/B Ratio | 26.29 | 14.87 | 2.06 | 90.48 | 36.41 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.32 | 2.74 | 1.66 | 6.04 | 1.72 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates RIGL's fair value at $145.88 vs the current price of $29.40, implying +396.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $145.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $112.15 (P10) to $171.04 (P90), with a median of $140.35.
RIGL's current P/E of 1.5x compares to the industry median of 15.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -90.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
15 analysts cover RIGL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $40.00 (range: $38.00 — $42.00), implying +36.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RIGL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.