MODEL VERDICT
Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RIGL) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $34.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $35.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $34.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $34.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $40.84 | Below threshold | -15.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $101.53 | +192.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $135.87 | +291.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $20.84 | -40.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $46.88 | +34.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $29.19 | -16.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $42.58 | +22.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $153.35 | +341.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $162.62 | +368.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $23.46 | -32.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $50.97 | +46.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $85.78 | +146.9% | 100% | 84 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 29× | 32× | 35× (Current) | 38× | 41× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $30 | $33 | $36 | $39 | $42 |
| Conservative (7%) | $31 | $34 | $37 | $40 | $43 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $32 | $35 | $38 | $41 | $45 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $33 | $36 | $39 | $43 | $46 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 10.56 | 10.77 | 3.36 | 17.36 | 6.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 26.55 | 14.87 | 3.36 | 90.48 | 36.20 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.11 | 3.03 | 1.66 | 8.30 | 2.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates RIGL's fair value at $85.78 vs the current price of $34.74, implying +146.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $85.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $52.97 (P10) to $104.33 (P90), with a median of $77.77.
RIGL's current P/E of 35.1x compares to the industry median of 21.0x (48 peers in the group). This represents a +66.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
15 analysts cover RIGL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $40.00 (range: $38.00 — $42.00), implying +15.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RIGL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.