MODEL VERDICT
Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $21.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $20.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $19.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $18.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $16.04 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $67.86 | +219.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $5.33 | -74.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $60.30 | +184.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $57.37 | +170.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $61.87 | +191.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $61.79 | +191.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $59.60 | +180.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $52.18 | +145.8% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 48.95 | 37.80 | 11.10 | 120.09 | 39.32 |
| P/B Ratio | 19.56 | 15.68 | 8.66 | 35.04 | 9.36 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.17 | 6.49 | 2.83 | 11.99 | 3.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates TENB's fair value at $52.18 vs the current price of $21.23, implying +145.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $52.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $31.92 (P10) to $72.37 (P90), with a median of $51.40.
TENB's current P/E of -70.8x compares to the industry median of 21.0x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -436.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
28 analysts cover TENB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $27.94 (range: $21.00 — $37.00), implying +31.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (12), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TENB.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.