MODEL VERDICT
SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 18 analyst estimates | $1.49 | -22.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 13 industry peers | $1.58 | -17.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 14 industry peers | $2.50 | +30.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $3.79 | +98.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $2.65 | +38.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 14 industry peers | $1.92 | +0.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.31 | +21.0% | 100% | 57 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 22.96 | 21.18 | 12.59 | 36.91 | 10.72 |
| P/B Ratio | 15.55 | 14.31 | 10.37 | 23.23 | 5.45 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.58 | 2.56 | 1.94 | 3.25 | 0.66 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates SDA's fair value at $2.31 vs the current price of $1.91, implying +21.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.79 (P10) to $2.63 (P90), with a median of $2.20.
SDA's current P/E of -2.7x compares to the industry median of 13.4x (15 peers in the group). This represents a -119.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover SDA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $6.00 (range: $6.00 — $6.00), implying +214.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SDA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.