MODEL VERDICT
Schrödinger, Inc. (SDGR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $12.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $11.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $12.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $12.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $11.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $3.27 | -73.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $5.09 | -58.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $22.99 | +85.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $22.09 | +78.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $3.32 | -73.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.91 | +4.2% | 100% | 63 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 4.50 | 4.03 | 3.01 | 7.62 | 1.68 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.47 | 4.01 | 2.97 | 7.62 | 1.70 |
| P/S Ratio | 15.57 | 9.87 | 5.13 | 43.97 | 14.67 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates SDGR's fair value at $12.91 vs the current price of $12.39, implying +4.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.41 (P10) to $13.49 (P90), with a median of $9.73.
SDGR's current P/E of -8.8x compares to the industry median of 41.1x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -121.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover SDGR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $18.00 (range: $18.00 — $18.00), implying +45.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SDGR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.