MODEL VERDICT
Wix.com Ltd. (WIX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $80.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $75.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $68.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $70.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $65.13 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $108.63 | +34.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $28.57 | -64.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $181.71 | +125.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $130.12 | +61.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $81.76 | +1.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $126.32 | +56.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $28.79 | -64.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $182.22 | +126.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $241.44 | +199.6% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 78× | 85× | 92× (Current) | 99× | 106× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $71 | $78 | $84 | $91 | $97 |
| Conservative (7%) | $73 | $80 | $86 | $93 | $99 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $76 | $82 | $89 | $96 | $103 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $78 | $85 | $92 | $99 | $106 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 141.60 | 118.06 | 90.91 | 215.82 | 65.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 1471.76 | 180.13 | 84.93 | 4150.23 | 2320.11 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1328.04 | 218.98 | 100.35 | 3664.78 | 2024.55 |
| P/FCF | 91.98 | 43.96 | 10.44 | 321.41 | 116.93 |
| P/FFO | 89.85 | 75.92 | 73.04 | 120.58 | 26.66 |
| P/TBV | 84.10 | 55.83 | 36.33 | 160.14 | 66.57 |
| P/B Ratio | 46.28 | 47.37 | 29.75 | 61.73 | 16.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.74 | 7.08 | 3.01 | 13.82 | 3.73 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates WIX's fair value at $241.44 vs the current price of $80.60, implying +199.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $241.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $98.82 (P10) to $348.25 (P90), with a median of $194.21.
WIX's current P/E of 91.6x compares to the industry median of 32.5x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +182.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 141.6x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
41 analysts cover WIX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $135.92 (range: $70.00 — $185.00), implying +68.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (30), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for WIX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.