MODEL VERDICT
SiTime Corporation (SITM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $558.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $570.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $503.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $454.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $420.32 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $265.49 | -52.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $146.07 | -73.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $136.63 | -75.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $245.68 | -56.0% | 100% | 52 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 98.37 | 81.44 | 75.48 | 138.19 | 34.61 |
| P/FCF | 268.61 | 224.32 | 64.47 | 561.32 | 209.84 |
| P/FFO | 127.03 | 153.86 | 65.62 | 161.60 | 53.32 |
| P/TBV | 8.61 | 7.99 | 3.27 | 16.68 | 4.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.44 | 5.71 | 3.25 | 16.36 | 5.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 16.39 | 17.15 | 3.20 | 28.27 | 9.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates SITM's fair value at $245.68 vs the current price of $558.63, implying -56.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 52/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $245.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $180.88 (P10) to $293.66 (P90), with a median of $236.36.
SITM's current P/E of -137.9x compares to the industry median of 105.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -230.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover SITM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $436.43 (range: $350.00 — $500.00), implying -21.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 52/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SITM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.