MODEL VERDICT
Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $88.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $97.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $106.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $99.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $117.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $78.15 | -12.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $67.98 | -23.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $68.31 | -23.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $123.16 | +38.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $66.91 | -24.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $68.83 | -22.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $46.71 | -47.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $91.15 | +2.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $68.23 | -23.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $123.47 | +38.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $65.61 | -26.2% | 100% | 78 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $76 | $84 | $91 | $99 | $107 |
| Conservative (5%) | $78 | $86 | $94 | $102 | $111 |
| Base Case (-1.5%) | $73 | $81 | $88 | $96 | $104 |
| Bull Case (-2%) | $73 | $80 | $88 | $96 | $103 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.40 | 10.29 | 2.99 | 27.80 | 8.67 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.57 | 10.26 | 4.86 | 21.35 | 5.64 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.54 | 6.67 | 3.84 | 12.04 | 2.76 |
| P/FCF | 7.63 | 6.71 | 2.96 | 15.24 | 4.32 |
| P/FFO | 6.30 | 5.34 | 2.14 | 12.30 | 3.42 |
| P/AFFO | 8.15 | 6.52 | 2.59 | 16.89 | 4.85 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.89 | 1.64 | 1.03 | 3.17 | 0.72 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.49 | 0.42 | 0.20 | 0.95 | 0.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates PATK's fair value at $65.61 vs the current price of $88.94, implying -26.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $65.61 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $59.81 (P10) to $80.89 (P90), with a median of $70.06.
PATK's current P/E of 22.8x compares to the industry median of 17.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +30.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.4x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
17 analysts cover PATK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $126.50 (range: $108.00 — $150.00), implying +42.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (3), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PATK trades at the 7270th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PATK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1960.0% to approximately $106. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.