MODEL VERDICT
Sonida Senior Living, Inc. (SNDA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $35.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $34.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $34.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $34.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $32.29 | Below threshold | +7.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Sales 31 industry peers | $25.25 | -29.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $85.68 | +138.7% | 100% | 61 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 41.65 | 36.77 | 4.19 | 88.87 | 35.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 55.22 | 30.41 | 2.60 | 162.12 | 58.22 |
| P/FFO | 3.16 | 3.49 | 0.48 | 7.75 | 2.98 |
| P/TBV | 3.55 | 3.10 | 0.20 | 7.36 | 3.60 |
| P/AFFO | 22.18 | 12.72 | 0.52 | 77.76 | 32.11 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.22 | 2.51 | 0.20 | 6.95 | 3.43 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.07 | 1.07 | 0.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 4 valuation metrics, the model estimates SNDA's fair value at $85.68 vs the current price of $35.89, implying +138.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 61/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $85.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.28 (P10) to $111.95 (P90), with a median of $41.22.
SNDA's current P/E of -66.5x compares to the industry median of 19.7x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -438.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover SNDA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $31.50 (range: $28.00 — $35.00), implying -12.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 61/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SNDA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.