MODEL VERDICT
Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $21.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $20.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $21.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $21.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $21.18 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $113.96 | +430.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $80.82 | +276.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $121.30 | +464.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $176.36 | +720.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $176.07 | +719.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $78.75 | +266.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $114.00 | +430.5% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $12 | $17 | $22 | $27 | $32 |
| Conservative (7%) | $12 | $17 | $22 | $27 | $32 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $13 | $18 | $23 | $28 | $33 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $13 | $19 | $24 | $29 | $35 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 13.46 | 10.74 | 7.08 | 30.07 | 8.14 |
| P/B Ratio | 13.20 | 10.37 | 7.00 | 29.47 | 7.97 |
| P/S Ratio | 15.75 | 12.16 | 6.90 | 24.94 | 8.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates SRPT's fair value at $114.00 vs the current price of $21.49, implying +430.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $114.00 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $98.08 (P10) to $137.81 (P90), with a median of $117.36.
SRPT's current P/E of 9.2x compares to the industry median of 34.5x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -73.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
54 analysts cover SRPT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $24.63 (range: $14.00 — $35.00), implying +14.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (30), Hold (18), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SRPT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.