MODEL VERDICT
State Street Corporation (STT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $152.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $150.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $145.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $142.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $139.42 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $187.07 | +23.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $200.70 | +32.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $175.78 | +15.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $173.94 | +14.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $187.07 | +23.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $181.63 | +19.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $165.80 | +9.1% | 100% | 92 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $127 | $144 | $161 | $178 | $195 |
| Conservative (6%) | $130 | $148 | $165 | $182 | $200 |
| Base Case (8.8%) | $134 | $152 | $170 | $188 | $205 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $138 | $156 | $175 | $193 | $211 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.23 | 11.95 | 9.85 | 14.70 | 1.71 |
| P/FCF | 4.94 | 4.26 | 2.48 | 8.74 | 3.01 |
| P/FFO | 7.75 | 7.83 | 6.26 | 9.01 | 1.08 |
| P/TBV | 1.75 | 1.78 | 1.56 | 1.99 | 0.15 |
| P/AFFO | 9.90 | 9.68 | 7.45 | 12.59 | 2.08 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.11 | 1.14 | 0.96 | 1.22 | 0.10 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.97 | 2.10 | 1.35 | 2.77 | 0.50 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates STT's fair value at $165.80 vs the current price of $152.00, implying +9.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 92/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $165.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $142.44 (P10) to $163.71 (P90), with a median of $152.95.
STT's current P/E of 18.5x compares to the industry median of 22.8x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -18.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.2x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
37 analysts cover STT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $160.44 (range: $144.00 — $170.00), implying +5.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (17), Hold (14), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 92/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: STT trades at the 6190th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that STT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1170.0% to approximately $134. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.