Smurfit Westrock plc (SW)
Valuation Overview•Is Smurfit Westrock plc Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a peer premium multiple, but this multiple is justified by a strong intrinsic cash flow value.
Fragile underlying quality score of 41/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
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Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
SW struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (35.2% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 5.4%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.0B | +53.0% | +35.2% | +29.6% | +13.4% | |
| EBITDA | $307.0M | — | +34.1% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $88.0M | +127.0% | -10.2% | — | +5.7% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.17 | +68.4% | -29.5% | -13.0% | -2.4% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $300.0M | +6958.8% | +33.6% | +5.9% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 18.0% | 21.5% | 22.2% | 27.1% |
| Operating Margin | 5.4% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.5% |
| Net Margin | 1.6% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% |
| FCF Margin | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26Latest | $0.40 | $0.35 | -13.5% | ||
| Q2'26 | $0.39 | $0.33 | -16.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.48 | $0.34 | -28.7% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.68 | $0.58 | -14.7% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.59 | $0.45 | -24.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.67 | $0.73 | +9.4% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.65 | $0.34 | -47.5% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.73 | $0.48 | -34.4% |
Total return is +5.8% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -9.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +10.9% | -1.8% | — |
| 1Y | +5.8% | -9.2% | +4.3% |
| 3YCAGR | +10.1% | -11.2% | +13.9% |
| 5YCAGR | -0.3% | -12.4% | +15.3% |
| 10YCAGR | +1.7% | -11.8% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) valuation, health, and returns.
Smurfit Westrock plc is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +31.5% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $55.96)
Smurfit Westrock plc has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $55.96 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $31.29 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $71.50 (implying +68.1% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Smurfit Westrock plc displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 41/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.8 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 5.0%.
Smurfit Westrock plc pays a 4.0% dividend yield, covered by a 129% payout ratio with 3 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Smurfit Westrock plc's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +53.0% 1Y revenue growth and +68.4% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +35.2%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 11 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 25% of recent quarters with a -5-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +68.1% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Smurfit Westrock plc include: -31.3% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.50x market volatility), elevated distress risk, stretched payout ratio. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.50x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.