Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW)
Estimates & Forecasts•Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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SW Price Targets Summary| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $747M | $308M | $699M | $860M | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.9B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.87 | $0.79 | $1.33 | $1.49 | $2.03 | $2.20 | $2.54 |
| YoY Growth | — | -58.8% | +127.0% | +23.0% | +49.8% | +19.4% | +26.7% |
| Net Margin | 6.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% |
USD · SW · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $31.2B | $39.7B | $52.4B | $69.1B | $80.9B |
| Net Income | $699M | $860M | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.9B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.33 | $1.49 | $2.03 | $2.20 | $2.54 |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.0B | $466M | $736M | $1.1B | $1.4B |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying SW stock.
Smurfit Westrock Plc's projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $1.49. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 44/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Smurfit Westrock Plc: Bear case $29, Base case $64, and Bull case $144. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Smurfit Westrock Plc's projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is 27.2%, reaching approximately $39.7B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 44/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Contracting margins add uncertainty to forward projections. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Smurfit Westrock Plc's forward operating margin is estimated at 6.3% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "contracting". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($29) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is below Wall Street consensus with a 38.3% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 23% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.