MODEL VERDICT
Symbotic Inc. (SYM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $58.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $59.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $63.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $58.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $53.83 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $20.24 | -65.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $276.22 | +369.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $332.61 | +464.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $91.29 | +55.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $75.84 | +28.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $273.75 | +364.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $126.88 | +115.5% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 9.72 | 8.21 | 5.20 | 15.77 | 5.44 |
| P/TBV | 11.37 | 9.46 | 5.87 | 18.79 | 6.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.52 | 9.37 | 5.82 | 13.38 | 3.78 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.01 | 2.01 | 1.09 | 2.88 | 0.83 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates SYM's fair value at $126.88 vs the current price of $58.89, implying +115.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $126.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $101.02 (P10) to $157.04 (P90), with a median of $128.26.
SYM's current P/E of -368.1x compares to the industry median of 50.4x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -830.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
18 analysts cover SYM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $67.30 (range: $42.00 — $83.00), implying +14.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (3), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SYM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.