MODEL VERDICT
Terex Corporation (TEX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $61.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $62.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $60.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $58.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $63.18 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $100.10 | +61.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $101.92 | +64.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $103.91 | +67.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $95.14 | +53.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $100.96 | +63.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $67.10 | +8.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $520.28 | +740.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $69.98 | +13.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $49.72 | -19.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $103.91 | +67.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $94.36 | +52.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $115.28 | +86.3% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (37%) | $68 | $77 | $86 | $95 | $105 |
| Conservative (59%) | $80 | $90 | $101 | $111 | $122 |
| Base Case (91.3%) | $96 | $108 | $121 | $134 | $147 |
| Bull Case (123%) | $111 | $126 | $141 | $156 | $171 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 47.96 | 10.20 | 7.60 | 268.38 | 97.24 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.13 | 8.67 | 5.84 | 39.82 | 11.95 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.02 | 7.56 | 4.38 | 25.93 | 7.22 |
| P/FCF | 17.23 | 15.20 | 10.99 | 33.15 | 7.60 |
| P/FFO | 18.12 | 9.34 | 6.84 | 62.55 | 20.14 |
| P/TBV | 3.44 | 3.37 | 2.88 | 3.83 | 0.40 |
| P/AFFO | 12.15 | 12.49 | 8.78 | 14.74 | 2.30 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.29 | 2.35 | 1.69 | 2.81 | 0.44 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.68 | 0.67 | 0.49 | 0.80 | 0.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TEX's fair value at $115.28 vs the current price of $61.87, implying +86.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $115.28 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $76.59 (P10) to $124.09 (P90), with a median of $94.28.
TEX's current P/E of 18.6x compares to the industry median of 31.2x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -40.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 48.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
31 analysts cover TEX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $80.25 (range: $56.00 — $100.00), implying +29.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (15), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TEX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 43060.0% to approximately $328. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.