Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN)
Valuation Overview•Is Triumph Financial, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Moderate quality score of 54/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
TFIN demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($248M) and minimal debt risk.
The company maintains stable top-line performance however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 8.6%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $122.5M | +5.8% | — | — | +16.0% | |
| EBITDA | $10.2M | — | -34.0% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $6.4M | +57.6% | -37.2% | — | -1.4% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.23 | +72.2% | -38.3% | -18.1% | -5.0% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.3M | +277.0% | -7.3% | -8.7% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 88.3% | 83.8% | 88.8% | 85.7% |
| Operating Margin | 8.6% | 7.3% | 16.4% | 20.4% |
| Net Margin | 6.3% | 5.6% | 12.6% | 14.8% |
| FCF Margin | 11.5% | 2.5% | 9.6% | 14.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.15 | $0.23 | +53.3% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.30 | $0.77 | +160.1% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.04 | $0.19 | +575.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.05 | $0.15 | +212.5% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.04 | $0.04 | -4.8% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.23 | $0.13 | -43.5% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.18 | $0.19 | +5.6% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.22 | $0.08 | -63.6% |
Total return is +32.2% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +7.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +13.7% | +4.4% | — |
| 1Y | +32.2% | +7.2% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +6.0% | -14.0% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -0.2% | -13.9% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +18.5% | +4.9% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN) valuation, health, and returns.
Triumph Financial, Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -77.9% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $15.91)
Triumph Financial, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $15.91 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $30.99 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $72.00 (implying -0.1% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Triumph Financial, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 54/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 2.5%.
Triumph Financial, Inc. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Triumph Financial, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +5.8% 1Y revenue growth and +72.2% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 9 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a 4-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -0.1% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Triumph Financial, Inc. include: -28.8% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.27x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.