MODEL VERDICT
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $31.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $33.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $36.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $35.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $35.63 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $36.14 | +14.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $34.60 | +9.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $38.53 | +22.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $24.69 | -21.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $31.92 | +1.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $24.10 | -23.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $47.12 | +49.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $33.09 | +4.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $33.35 | +5.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $36.57 | +16.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $25.42 | -19.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $36.19 | +14.8% | 100% | 82 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $29 | $32 | $35 | $37 | $40 |
| Conservative (18%) | $31 | $34 | $37 | $40 | $42 |
| Base Case (27.2%) | $34 | $37 | $40 | $43 | $46 |
| Bull Case (37%) | $36 | $39 | $43 | $46 | $49 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 45.03 | 39.25 | 27.68 | 73.94 | 20.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 57.78 | 32.87 | 28.78 | 135.43 | 45.47 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.47 | 18.14 | 14.32 | 25.35 | 4.13 |
| P/FCF | 37.78 | 29.31 | 19.41 | 73.09 | 24.14 |
| P/FFO | 20.85 | 20.33 | 18.06 | 26.10 | 3.13 |
| P/TBV | 1.91 | 1.63 | 1.39 | 3.32 | 0.80 |
| P/AFFO | 43.27 | 38.75 | 29.57 | 65.99 | 15.81 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.91 | 1.63 | 1.39 | 3.32 | 0.80 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.50 | 13.02 | 11.26 | 17.14 | 2.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TFPM's fair value at $36.19 vs the current price of $31.53, implying +14.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $36.19 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $29.44 (P10) to $39.14 (P90), with a median of $34.27.
TFPM's current P/E of 26.3x compares to the industry median of 32.1x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -18.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 45.0x over 4 years. Signal: Discount.
4 analysts cover TFPM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $43.00 (range: $43.00 — $43.00), implying +36.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TFPM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (26.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2660.0% to approximately $23. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.