MODEL VERDICT
MPLX Lp (MPLX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $56.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $55.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $55.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $54.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $56.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $70.90 | +25.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $65.80 | +16.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $99.58 | +75.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $87.55 | +54.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $83.53 | +47.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $81.83 | +44.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $113.90 | +101.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $33.77 | -40.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $40.28 | -28.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $99.58 | +75.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $82.75 | +46.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $83.79 | +48.0% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $43 | $52 | $62 | $71 | $81 |
| Conservative (21%) | $46 | $56 | $66 | $76 | $87 |
| Base Case (32.5%) | $50 | $61 | $73 | $84 | $95 |
| Bull Case (44%) | $55 | $67 | $79 | $91 | $103 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.91 | 10.86 | 8.76 | 24.72 | 5.94 |
| EV/EBIT | 53.17 | 12.91 | 11.01 | 291.39 | 105.07 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.45 | 10.12 | 8.67 | 27.34 | 6.65 |
| P/FCF | 11.29 | 8.25 | 6.82 | 25.42 | 6.68 |
| P/FFO | 11.79 | 8.59 | 6.41 | 34.63 | 10.15 |
| P/TBV | 5.83 | 6.42 | 3.41 | 8.32 | 1.74 |
| P/AFFO | 13.02 | 8.75 | 7.59 | 30.10 | 9.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.41 | 2.45 | 1.31 | 3.47 | 0.74 |
| Div Yield | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.27 | 0.07 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.31 | 3.17 | 2.68 | 4.46 | 0.61 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MPLX's fair value at $83.79 vs the current price of $56.61, implying +48.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $83.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $63.69 (P10) to $106.59 (P90), with a median of $79.98.
MPLX's current P/E of 13.4x compares to the industry median of 23.7x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -43.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.9x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
28 analysts cover MPLX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $60.25 (range: $59.00 — $63.00), implying +6.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MPLX trades at the 2220th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MPLX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (35.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1350.0% to approximately $49. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.