Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP)
Estimates & Forecasts•Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP)Proprietary model projects FY+1 EPS of $2.60 with +11.1% revenue growth at 48/100 confidence. Inline consensus estimate using the cyclical operating company framework.
USD · UGP · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $142.4B | $158.2B | $166.9B | $169.7B | $166.1B |
| Net Income | $2.5B | $2.8B | $2.9B | $3.0B | $2.9B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.19 | $2.60 | $2.80 | $2.90 | $2.90 |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $1.9B |
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $126.0B | $133.5B | $142.4B | $158.2B | $166.9B | $169.7B | $166.1B |
| YoY Growth | -12.2% | +5.9% | +6.6% | +11.1% | +5.5% | +1.7% | -2.1% |
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Income | $4.6B | $5.1B | $4.9B | $5.5B | $5.8B | $5.9B | $5.8B |
| Operating Margin | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $2.4B | $2.4B | $2.5B | $2.8B | $2.9B | $3.0B | $2.9B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.21 | $2.11 | $2.19 | $2.60 | $2.80 | $2.90 | $2.90 |
| YoY Growth | +35.5% | -3.2% | +3.9% | +12.8% | +5.6% | +1.4% | -2.0% |
| Net Margin | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Quick answers to common questions about UGP estimates and forecasts.
Ultrapar Participações S.A.'s projected EPS for next fiscal year is $2.60, representing a +15.1% growth YoY. This forecast has a confidence score of 48/100 and uses the cyclical operating company framework.
EarningsThe 12-month base price target is $32 (implying a +547.9% return from the current price of $4.89). Bear and bull scenario targets are $20 and $42 respectively.
ForecastRevenue is expected to grow 11.1% next fiscal year, reaching approximately $158.2 billion, blending historical trends with near-term analyst expectations.
GrowthEstimates carry a confidence score of 48/100. This indicates higher uncertainty due to historical volatility or limited data coverage. Reliability is evaluated based on data depth and consensus alignment.
MethodologyOperating margin is projected at 3.5% next fiscal year. Margins are currently expanding (favorable operating leverage).
EarningsThe model blends historical SEC statements with near-term consensus analyst expectations for the first two years (FY1 and FY2), transitioning to purely data-driven, long-term mathematical projection rules for years three and four.
MethodologyRisks include macro disruptions, margin contraction, or low growth. The bear case price target of $20 represents a 37% discount to the base case, highlighting downside potential in pessimistic conditions.
RiskOur FY+1 EPS projection of $2.60 is inline consensus of $2.78 (a difference of 7.2%).
ForecastDisclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Financial forecasts and estimates are model outputs under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.