MODEL VERDICT
Vipshop Holdings Limited (VIPS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $14.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $14.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $15.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $15.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $15.07 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $92.70 | +538.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $264.57 | +1722.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $247.91 | +1607.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $224.09 | +1443.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $214.73 | +1378.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $195.49 | +1246.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $137.75 | +848.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $478.20 | +3193.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $425.70 | +2831.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $247.39 | +1603.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $212.80 | +1365.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $174.19 | +1099.6% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $62 | $77 | $108 | $139 | $170 |
| Conservative (13%) | $65 | $81 | $113 | $145 | $178 |
| Base Case (19.5%) | $69 | $86 | $120 | $154 | $189 |
| Bull Case (26%) | $72 | $91 | $127 | $163 | $199 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1.75 | 1.39 | 0.94 | 3.28 | 0.83 |
| EV/EBIT | 1.08 | 1.18 | 0.32 | 1.75 | 0.72 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.93 | 1.04 | 0.28 | 1.47 | 0.60 |
| P/FCF | 1.50 | 1.30 | 1.09 | 2.03 | 0.37 |
| P/FFO | 1.44 | 1.26 | 0.79 | 2.81 | 0.70 |
| P/TBV | 0.43 | 0.37 | 0.22 | 0.87 | 0.23 |
| P/AFFO | 4.23 | 2.39 | 1.13 | 13.98 | 4.90 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.31 | 0.26 | 0.17 | 0.66 | 0.18 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.19 | 0.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates VIPS's fair value at $174.19 vs the current price of $14.52, implying +1099.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $174.19 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $124.72 (P10) to $227.22 (P90), with a median of $172.57.
VIPS's current P/E of 6.9x compares to the industry median of 17.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -60.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1.8x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
28 analysts cover VIPS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $21.80 (range: $21.00 — $22.60), implying +50.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: VIPS trades at the 260th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (1.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VIPS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6080.0% to approximately $23. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.