MODEL VERDICT
Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $181.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $177.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $178.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $176.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $164.28 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $165.89 | -8.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $222.92 | +23.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $187.93 | +3.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $189.02 | +4.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $218.37 | +20.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $208.06 | +14.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $156.48 | -13.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $157.61 | -13.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $147.09 | -18.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $199.72 | +10.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $199.81 | +10.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $230.23 | +27.1% | 100% | 89 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $161 | $174 | $188 | $201 | $215 |
| Conservative (6%) | $164 | $178 | $192 | $205 | $219 |
| Base Case (8.5%) | $169 | $183 | $197 | $211 | $225 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $174 | $188 | $203 | $217 | $232 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 45.96 | 48.16 | 29.40 | 57.28 | 11.20 |
| EV/EBIT | 33.76 | 33.24 | 22.75 | 44.69 | 8.22 |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.74 | 27.12 | 18.25 | 31.53 | 4.73 |
| P/FCF | 37.79 | 41.78 | 26.11 | 42.76 | 6.30 |
| P/FFO | 31.06 | 32.05 | 21.66 | 39.29 | 5.90 |
| P/AFFO | 40.62 | 41.65 | 27.50 | 52.86 | 8.88 |
| P/B Ratio | 91.01 | 15.86 | 11.00 | 374.69 | 132.38 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.57 | 13.12 | 9.54 | 15.17 | 2.30 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates VRSK's fair value at $230.23 vs the current price of $181.11, implying +27.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $230.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $208.13 (P10) to $241.58 (P90), with a median of $224.74.
VRSK's current P/E of 27.9x compares to the industry median of 29.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -3.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 46.0x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
25 analysts cover VRSK with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $231.25 (range: $223.00 — $260.00), implying +27.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (8), Hold (15), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VRSK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (42.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 13780.0% to approximately $431. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.