MODEL VERDICT
Vtex (VTEX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $3.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $4.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $4.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $4.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $4.03 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $3.33 | -15.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $2.72 | -30.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $4.93 | +25.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $3.20 | -18.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $2.85 | -27.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $3.06 | -21.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $4.80 | +22.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $4.48 | +14.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $4.89 | +24.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $3.21 | -18.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.29 | +35.0% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $3 | $4 | $4 | $4 | $5 |
| Conservative (7%) | $4 | $4 | $4 | $5 | $5 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $4 | $4 | $4 | $5 | $5 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $4 | $4 | $4 | $5 | $5 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 135.03 | 44.98 | 21.55 | 338.58 | 176.66 |
| P/TBV | 4.90 | 4.99 | 2.94 | 6.98 | 1.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.32 | 4.43 | 2.60 | 6.26 | 1.54 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.01 | 5.00 | 2.90 | 16.28 | 5.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates VTEX's fair value at $5.29 vs the current price of $3.92, implying +35.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.29 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.15 (P10) to $8.00 (P90), with a median of $5.03.
VTEX's current P/E of 35.6x compares to the industry median of 44.8x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -20.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Discount.
13 analysts cover VTEX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $4.00 (range: $4.00 — $4.00), implying +2.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for VTEX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.