MODEL VERDICT
Xperi Inc. (XPER)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $6.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $6.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $6.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $6.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $5.81 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $36.95 | +430.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $45.37 | +550.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $126.28 | +1711.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $23.09 | +231.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 1 industry peers | $32.93 | +372.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $26.28 | +277.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $11.52 | +65.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $11.05 | +58.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $76.47 | +997.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $22.84 | +227.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $40.94 | +487.3% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $4 | $5 | $7 | $9 | $11 |
| Conservative (7%) | $4 | $5 | $7 | $9 | $12 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $4 | $5 | $8 | $10 | $12 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $4 | $6 | $8 | $10 | $12 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 3.02 | 2.63 | 1.74 | 4.99 | 1.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.01 | 0.94 | 0.78 | 1.37 | 0.25 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.33 | 1.21 | 0.72 | 2.32 | 0.60 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates XPER's fair value at $40.94 vs the current price of $6.97, implying +487.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $40.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $37.94 (P10) to $58.65 (P90), with a median of $48.14.
XPER's current P/E of 7.0x compares to the industry median of 127.6x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -94.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover XPER with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for XPER.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.