MODEL VERDICT
Yuanbao Inc. American Depositary Shares (YB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $19.54 | CURRENT | -19.5% |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $20.35 | Pending | -14.9% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $19.87 | Pending | -6.2% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $20.39 | Pending | -8.8% |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $20.13 | Monitoring | -7.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 18 industry peers | $1409.51 | +7113.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 17 analyst estimates | $350.47 | +1693.6% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Earnings Yield 18 industry peers | $1409.51 | +7113.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 18 industry peers | $698.79 | +3476.2% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 15 industry peers | $1897.09 | +9608.8% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1108.87 | +5574.9% | 100% | 55 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 5× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $479 | $479 | $479 | $479 | $599 |
| Conservative (7%) | $491 | $491 | $491 | $491 | $614 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $507 | $507 | $507 | $507 | $634 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $523 | $523 | $523 | $523 | $654 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates YB's fair value at $1108.87 vs the current price of $19.54, implying +5574.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 55/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1108.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $910.53 (P10) to $1410.86 (P90), with a median of $1142.06.
YB's current P/E of 1.2x compares to the industry median of 12.2x (18 peers in the group). This represents a -90.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for YB.
The model confidence score is 55/100, based on: data completeness (17), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for YB.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.