MODEL VERDICT
Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. (ZVRA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $10.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $10.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $10.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $10.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $9.40 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $13.95 | +38.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $34.62 | +243.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $7.49 | -25.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $7.75 | -23.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $31.35 | +211.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.59 | +104.5% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $6 | $7 | $10 | $13 | $15 |
| Conservative (7%) | $6 | $7 | $10 | $13 | $16 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $6 | $7 | $10 | $13 | $16 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $6 | $8 | $11 | $14 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.57 | 2.11 | 2.04 | 3.57 | 0.87 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.19 | 3.32 | 2.04 | 9.72 | 3.18 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.35 | 8.46 | 0.88 | 16.34 | 5.91 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates ZVRA's fair value at $20.59 vs the current price of $10.07, implying +104.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.78 (P10) to $27.34 (P90), with a median of $21.43.
ZVRA's current P/E of 7.5x compares to the industry median of 25.6x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -70.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover ZVRA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $24.25 (range: $23.00 — $26.00), implying +140.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ZVRA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.