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TOLToll Brothers, Inc.
$152.56$14.3B
Overview & Tools
OverviewChart Terminal ↗Visualize
Valuation & Forecasts
Valuation ModelsEstimatesDCF Model
Price & Analyst Data
Analyst TargetsPrice History
Financial Statements
Income StatementBalance SheetCash FlowRatios & Margins
Performance
P/E HistoryRevenue HistoryEarnings HistoryDividend HistoryTotal Return
Discovery & Screens
Live BreakoutsStock ScreenerOwnership
TOL logo

Toll Brothers, Inc.

TOL
NYSE · Homebuilders
$152.56
At close - Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST - USD
Market Cap$14.26B
P/E12.2x
52W High$168.36
Volume935.63K
OverviewTerminalAnalysisFinancialsValuationEarningsBreakoutsOwnership
VCP Research Verdict2026Q3

Accelerating Margin Erosion Threatens Luxury Pricing Power

Toll Brothers faces a fundamental challenge as its core luxury pricing power thesis is undermined by accelerating gross margin compression, which has fallen from 27.2% in 2024Q3 to 23.5% in 2026Q3, creating negative operating leverage.

GrowthDecelerating
ProfitabilityModerate
ValuationAttractive
TechnicalsNeutral
Explore valuation models
MARKET ACTION

TOL price & volume

Price trend, volume and key moving averages

Launch Terminal
Loading chart...
Decision Checklist4 Core Signals

What matters now

The signals most likely to change the investment case.

01

Earnings momentum

10/12 Beats

EPS beat 10 of last 12 quarters

02

Valuation risk

-22% Peers

P/E is 22% below peer median

03

Market leadership

RS 71 · Avg

Average momentum (RS Rating: 71)

04

Trend Check

N/A

Trend data unavailable

Next CatalystConfirmed earnings · Dec 14
01

Build the investment case

Start with the evidence for owning the stock and the risks that can break the thesis.

EXECUTIVE THESIS

The Investment Case

Full Analysis
Fundamental Trajectory

Revenue growth has decelerated into a 9.7% YoY decline in Q3 2026, while gross margin has compressed 380 basis points over two years to 23.5%, amplifying operating income pressure through negative operating leverage.

Analyst Consensus+10.0% target
Buy(46 analysts)
23 Buy21 Hold2 Sell

The Bull Case

Upside Catalysts

Resilient housing market performance

Toll Brothers has emerged as a resilient outlier in the housing market, maintaining margins despite interest rate volatility and inventory shortages.

Strong moat and business model

The company has a strong moat and a robust business model, which is highlighted in investment memos and analysis.

Potential revenue growth from rate cuts

If interest rates fall faster, Toll Brothers could see an 8% revenue growth in the bull case scenario.

The Bear Case

Key Downside Risks

Market performance

Price History →

Trailing total returns as of 11/7/2026, which may include dividends or other distributions. Benchmark is S&P 500 (^GSPC).

YTD Return
TOL+13.28%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+7.63%
1-Year Return
TOL+15.78%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+9.69%
3-Year Return
TOL+94.17%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+65.30%
5-Year Return
TOL+152.73%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+53.46%
02

Test the fundamentals

Check whether operating performance supports the current valuation.

VALUATION & INTRINSIC VALUE

Valuation Scenarios

Valuation Analysis
Trailing P/E5Y High
12.2x
Forward P/EExpansion
12.0x
EV/EBITDA100th %ile
10.2x
FCF YieldCash Flow
7.6%

Valuation vs 5-Year History

Multiple Range
Metric
Current
5Y Median
Historical Range
Percentile
P/E
12.2x
9.1x
100th· High
EV/EBITDA
10.2x
8.0x
100th· High
Price/FCF
13.1x
6.6x
60th· Fair
Current Multiple
5Y Median (50th %ile)

Intrinsic Value Scenarios

DCF Projection
Bear$81.69-46.5%
Base (Fair)$142.79-6.4%
Bull$196.20+28.6%
$81.69 Bear$142.79 Base$196.20 Bull
Current Market Price: $152.56
Trades at a 6.8% premium to Base DCF ($142.79)
Open DCF & Valuation Models →Chart Terminal ↗

Growth & profitability

Annual revenue & EPS trend
Revenue FY25
$10.97B+1.1% YoY
Net income FY25
$1.35B-14.3% YoY
Free cash flow FY25
$1.03B+9.6% YoY
Operating margin FY25
15.7%-3.1 pts YoY
ROIC (FY25)13.4%
Avg ROIC 5Y14.1%
ROE (TTM)14.2%
Piotroski Score4 / 9
Financial Statements →
03

Monitor what changed

Recent results and news deserve attention only when they alter the forward view.

OPERATING RESULTS

Recent Earnings

Earnings History
EPS Beat Rate10/12 (83%)
Revenue Beat Rate11/12 (92%)
QuarterEPS (Act vs Est)Revenue (Act vs Est)
Q3 2026Latest
Aug 18, 2026
$2.97+1.4%
vs $2.93
$2.7B+1.5%
vs $2.6B
Q2 2026
May 19, 2026
$2.72+5.4%
vs $2.58
$2.5B+4.8%
vs $2.4B
Q1 2026
Feb 17, 2026
$2.19+6.8%
vs $2.05
$2.1B+15.7%
vs $1.9B
Q4 2025
Dec 8, 2025
$4.58-6.1%
vs $4.88
$3.4B+3.7%
vs $3.3B
Historical baseline: 12 quarters analyzedGAAP / Adjusted
MARKET COVERAGE

Latest News

4 Stories
GlobeNewsWire·Oct 30, 2026
Toll Brothers Announces New Luxury Home Collection Coming Soon to Toll Brothers at Mapleton near Provo, Utah

The Crest Collection will feature luxury homes with stunning mountain views The Crest Collection will feature luxury homes with stunning mountain views

GlobeNewsWire·Oct 28, 2026
Toll Brothers Announces New Regency 55+ Community Coming Soon to Howey-In-The-Hills, Florida

Regency at Lake Hills offers lakefront living with resort-style amenities in Lake County Regency at Lake Hills offers lakefront living with resort-style amenities in Lake County

GlobeNewsWire·Oct 28, 2026
Toll Brothers Announces New Luxury Home Community Coming Soon to Rocklin, California

Montreo by Toll Brothers will offer stunning views, spacious home designs, and exclusive gated living Montreo by Toll Brothers will offer stunning views, spacious home designs, and exclusive gated living

Zacks Investment Research·Oct 27, 2026
Why Toll Brothers (TOL) Outpaced the Stock Market Today

Toll Brothers (TOL) concluded the recent trading session at $141.95, signifying a +1.1% move from its prior day's close.

Filtered for Toll Brothers, Inc.More Headlines
04

Compare before deciding

Benchmark TOL against direct peers instead of judging its metrics in isolation.

Peers Comparison

Key metrics vs top competitors for Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

Full Screener →
CompanyPriceMarket CapP/E RatioRev Growth (1Y)Net MarginROEDiv Yield
TOL logoTOLToll Brothers, Inc.Current
$152.56$14.26B12.171.11%11.14%14.21%0.64%
DHI logoDHID.R. Horton, Inc.
$152.28$42.59B14.65-3.52%8.74%11.93%1.18%
LEN logoLENLennar Corporation
$88.74$22.03B16.09-3.54%4.1%5.99%2.28%
PHM logoPHMPulteGroup, Inc.
$132.49$25.57B13.85-3.54%11.24%13.8%0.67%
NVR logoNVRNVR, Inc.
$6298.29$17B16.71-2.08%11.23%29.53%—
MHO logoMHOM/I Homes, Inc.
$131.60$3.39B12.31-1.93%6.59%8.64%—

Compare TOL vs Peers

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.

Closest Rival

vs DHI

Most directly comparable listed peer for TOL.

Scale Benchmark

vs SHW

Larger-name benchmark to compare TOL against a more recognizable public peer.

Peer Set

Compare Top 5

vs DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR

05

Keep researching

Verify the primary filings, follow material updates, and answer the remaining questions.

TOL SEC Filings & Documents

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) SEC filings — annual & quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q)

8-K Announcements

6
Material company update

Aug 18, 2026·SEC

Material company update

May 19, 2026·SEC

Material company update

May 13, 2026·SEC

10-K Annual Reports

3
FY 2025

Dec 19, 2025·SEC

FY 2024

Dec 20, 2024·SEC

FY 2023

Dec 21, 2023·SEC

10-Q Quarterly Reports

6
FY 2026

Aug 28, 2026·SEC

FY 2026

May 29, 2026·SEC

FY 2026

Feb 27, 2026·SEC

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TOL Frequently Asked Questions

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained

Growth & Financials
What is Toll Brothers, Inc.'s revenue?

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) reported $10.76B in revenue over the trailing twelve months. Revenue was $10.97B in fiscal year 2025. That is 1342% more than the $760.7M of fiscal year 1996.

How fast is Toll Brothers, Inc. growing?

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) revenue fell by 1.1% over the trailing twelve months, compared with the twelve months before.

Is TOL profitable?

Yes. Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) earned $1.20B in net income over the trailing twelve months (a 11.1% net margin).

Dividend & Returns
Does TOL pay dividends?

Yes. Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) pays a dividend that yields 0.64% at the current price, a small yield.

What is TOL's return on equity?

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) had a return on equity (ROE) of 14.2% over the trailing twelve months. That is in line with the market's typical 10-15%.

What is Toll Brothers, Inc.'s free cash flow?

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) generated $1.09B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months.

What if you invested $1,000 in TOL back in 1996?

Total return calculator · dividends reinvested · 30+ years of data

See returns →