AMSF trades 31.3% below Wall Street's consensus target of $32.00.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes AMSF achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 12.3x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 6 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $32.00, based on estimates from 6 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $24.37, this represents a potential upside of +31.3%. The company has a market capitalization of $456M.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $32.00 to a high of $32.00, representing a 0% spread in expectations. The median target of $32.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 3 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,3 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, AMSF trades at a trailing P/E of 9.9x and forward P/E of 12.3x. Analysts expect EPS to grow -21.0% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $28.59, with bear and bull scenarios of $18.01 and $37.67 respectively. Model confidence stands at 42/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KNTKKinetik Holdings Inc. | $3.9B | $52.92 | $56.56 | +6.9% | Buy | 38.1x | 16 |
 EIGEmployers Holdings, Inc. | $1.1B | $47.79 | — | — | Buy | 20.8x | 8 |
 ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd. | $33.2B | $95.16 | $113.50 | +19.3% | Buy | 10.1x | 34 |
 HIGThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | $34.7B | $126.59 | $151.33 | +19.5% | Buy | 9.9x | 42 |
 TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc. | $75.2B | $360.39 | $351.11 | -2.6% | Hold | 10.6x | 44 |
 WRBW. R. Berkley Corporation | $25.2B | $67.67 | $69.44 | +2.6% | Hold | 13.9x | 30 |
 SIGISelective Insurance Group, Inc. | $5.1B | $86.33 | $98.75 | +14.4% | Hold | 10.6x | 16 |
 CINFCincinnati Financial Corporation | $25.0B | $162.57 | $198.00 | +21.8% | Hold | 19.4x | 17 |
 MMCMarsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. | $85.3B | $174.06 | $199.40 | +14.6% | Hold | 16.9x | 26 |
 AONAon plc | $59.7B | $281.60 | $387.30 | +37.5% | Hold | 15.0x | 38 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying AMSF stock.
The consensus Wall Street price target for AMSF is $32, representing 31.3% upside from the current price of $24.37. With 6 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
AMSF has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 6 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 3 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $32 implies 31.3% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 12.3392x, AMSF trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $32 implies 31.3% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $32 for AMSF, while the most conservative target is $32. The consensus of $32 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $38 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
AMSF is moderately covered, with 6 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 3 have Buy ratings, 3 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month AMSF stock forecast based on 6 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $32, with estimates ranging from $32 (bear case) to $32 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $29, with bear/bull scenarios of $18/$38.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates AMSF's fair value at $29 (base case), with a bear case of $18 and bull case of $38. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 42/100.
AMSF trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12.3x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 9.9x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on AMSF, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $32 price target (31.3% upside). 3 of 6 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
AMSF analyst price targets range from $32 to $32, a 0% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $32 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $18-$38 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
Live VCP patterns, Cup & Handle overlays, support/resistance, and AI trade plans.
High-probability breakout stocks crossing their pivot across 5 pattern engines.
DCF models, multiple analysis, and analyst estimates.
10-year return with dividends reinvested.
Compare growth, multiples, and margins vs sector.