AMSF trades 71.0% below Wall Street's consensus target of $33.50.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes AMSF achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 10.4x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 6 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of November 8, 2026, AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $33.50, based on estimates from 6 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $19.59, this represents a potential upside of +71.0%. The company has a market capitalization of $366M.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $27.00 to a high of $40.00, representing a 39% spread in expectations. The median target of $33.50 aligns closely with the consensus average.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 3 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,3 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, AMSF trades at a trailing P/E of 9.0x and forward P/E of 10.4x. Analysts expect EPS to grow -13.4% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $15.71, with bear and bull scenarios of $9.90 and $20.70 respectively. Model confidence stands at 41/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KNTKKinetik Holdings Inc. | $3.6B | $48.77 | $57.56 | +18.0% | Buy | 32.6x | 16 |
 EIGEmployers Holdings, Inc. | $1.0B | $47.30 | — | — | Buy | 20.1x | 8 |
 ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd. | $37.5B | $107.28 | $112.50 | +4.9% | Hold | 10.6x | 34 |
 HIGThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | $36.7B | $133.99 | $145.40 | +8.5% | Buy | 10.3x | 42 |
 TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc. | $82.4B | $395.20 | $356.18 | -9.9% | Hold | 10.8x | 44 |
 WRBW. R. Berkley Corporation | $28.0B | $75.23 | $70.56 | -6.2% | Hold | 15.2x | 30 |
 SIGISelective Insurance Group, Inc. | $5.9B | $99.44 | $100.80 | +1.4% | Hold | 11.5x | 17 |
 CINFCincinnati Financial Corporation | $28.5B | $185.48 | $198.00 | +6.8% | Hold | 20.2x | 17 |
 MRSHMarsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. | $97.7B | $204.82 | $199.40 | +14.6% | Hold | 16.9x | 26 |
 AONAon plc | $71.0B | $334.81 | $361.30 | +7.9% | Buy | 18.2x | 38 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying AMSF stock.
The consensus Wall Street price target for AMSF is $33.5, representing 71.0% upside from the current price of $19.59. With 6 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
AMSF has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 6 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 3 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $33.5 implies 71.0% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 10.448x, AMSF trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $33.5 implies 71.0% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $40 for AMSF, while the most conservative target is $27. The consensus of $33.5 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $21 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
AMSF is moderately covered, with 6 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 3 have Buy ratings, 3 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month AMSF stock forecast based on 6 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $33.5, with estimates ranging from $27 (bear case) to $40 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $16, with bear/bull scenarios of $10/$21.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates AMSF's fair value at $16 (base case), with a bear case of $10 and bull case of $21. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 41/100.
AMSF trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10.4x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 9.0x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on AMSF, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $33.5 price target (71.0% upside). 3 of 6 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
AMSF analyst price targets range from $27 to $40, a 39% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $33.5 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $10-$21 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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