AMSF trades 42.1% below Wall Street's consensus target of $44.50.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes AMSF achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 14.9x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 6 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of June 22, 2026, AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $44.50, based on estimates from 6 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $31.32, this represents a potential upside of +42.1%. The company has a market capitalization of $589M.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $34.00 to a high of $55.00, representing a 47% spread in expectations. The median target of $44.50 aligns closely with the consensus average.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 3 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,3 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, AMSF trades at a trailing P/E of 12.7x and forward P/E of 14.9x. Analysts expect EPS to grow -14.5% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $28.59, with bear and bull scenarios of $18.01 and $37.67 respectively. Model confidence stands at 42/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KNTKKinetik Holdings Inc. | $3.2B | $46.53 | $50.50 | +8.5% | Buy | 49.2x | 15 |
EIGEmployers Holdings, Inc. | $1.1B | $46.55 | — | — | Buy | 20.8x | 8 |
ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd. | $32.5B | $91.18 | $102.57 | +12.5% | Buy | 9.8x | 34 |
HIGThe Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $35.3B | $128.25 | $151.56 | +18.2% | Buy | 10.0x | 42 |
TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc. | $66.6B | $307.81 | $310.40 | +0.8% | Hold | 11.0x | 43 |
WRBW. R. Berkley Corporation | $25.2B | $67.18 | $69.10 | +2.9% | Hold | 14.3x | 30 |
SIGISelective Insurance Group, Inc. | $5.5B | $92.31 | $95.00 | +2.9% | Hold | 11.9x | 16 |
CINFCincinnati Financial Corporation | $26.5B | $170.20 | $182.50 | +7.2% | Buy | 19.6x | 17 |
MMCMarsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. | $85.3B | $174.06 | $210.40 | +20.9% | Hold | 16.9x | 26 |
AONAon plc | $68.1B | $317.74 | $395.40 | +24.4% | Buy | 16.6x | 38 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying AMSF stock.
The consensus Wall Street price target for AMSF is $44.5, representing 42.1% upside from the current price of $31.32. With 6 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
AMSF has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 6 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 3 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $44.5 implies 42.1% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 14.9072x, AMSF trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $44.5 implies 42.1% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $55 for AMSF, while the most conservative target is $34. The consensus of $44.5 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $38 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
AMSF is moderately covered, with 6 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 3 have Buy ratings, 3 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month AMSF stock forecast based on 6 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $44.5, with estimates ranging from $34 (bear case) to $55 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $29, with bear/bull scenarios of $18/$38.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates AMSF's fair value at $29 (base case), with a bear case of $18 and bull case of $38. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 42/100.
AMSF trades at a forward P/E ratio of 14.9x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 12.7x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on AMSF, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $44.5 price target (42.1% upside). 3 of 6 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
AMSF analyst price targets range from $34 to $55, a 47% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $44.5 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $18-$38 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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