AROW trades 21.7% below Wall Street's consensus target of $45.00.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes AROW achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 10.5x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 1 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $45.00, based on estimates from 1 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $36.97, this represents a potential upside of +21.7%. The company has a market capitalization of $611M.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $44.00 to a high of $46.00, representing a 4% spread in expectations. The median target of $45.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 1 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,0 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. This overwhelmingly bullish sentiment suggests analysts see significant catalysts for upside ahead.
From a valuation perspective, AROW trades at a trailing P/E of 14.0x and forward P/E of 10.5x. The forward PEG ratio of 5.49 reflects a premium valuation. Analysts expect EPS to grow +12.5% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $51.97, with bear and bull scenarios of $32.74 and $68.47 respectively. Model confidence stands at 43/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CZWICitizens Community Bancorp, Inc. | $205M | $21.23 | $24.00 | +13.0% | Buy | 14.9x | 3 |
 FUNCFirst United Corporation | $276M | $42.76 | $49.50 | +15.8% | Buy | 9.6x | 1 |
 NECBNortheast Community Bancorp, Inc. | $364M | $26.38 | $29.50 | +11.8% | Hold | 8.6x | 1 |
 TRSTTrustCo Bank Corp NY | $946M | $55.54 | — | — | Hold | 19.4x | 3 |
 CHMGChemung Financial Corporation | $391M | $81.22 | $87.00 | +7.1% | Hold | 10.7x | 7 |
 FISIFinancial Institutions, Inc. | $781M | $39.66 | $45.00 | +13.5% | Hold | 9.5x | 6 |
 NBTBNBT Bancorp Inc. | $2.6B | $50.48 | $56.67 | +12.3% | Hold | 12.1x | 10 |
 STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc. | $1.7B | $49.10 | $53.50 | +9.0% | Hold | 12.5x | 12 |
 CNOBConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. | $1.5B | $30.50 | $34.00 | +11.5% | Buy | 9.4x | 11 |
 EGBNEagle Bancorp, Inc. | $856M | $28.06 | $30.50 | +8.7% | Hold | 19.3x | 14 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying AROW stock.
The consensus Wall Street price target for AROW is $45, representing 21.7% upside from the current price of $36.97. With 1 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
AROW has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 1 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 1 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $45 implies 21.7% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 10.5301x, AROW trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $45 implies 21.7% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $46 for AROW, while the most conservative target is $44. The consensus of $45 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $68 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
AROW is lightly followed, with 1 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 1 have Buy ratings, 0 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month AROW stock forecast based on 1 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $45, with estimates ranging from $44 (bear case) to $46 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $52, with bear/bull scenarios of $33/$68.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates AROW's fair value at $52 (base case), with a bear case of $33 and bull case of $68. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 43/100.
AROW trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10.5x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 14.0x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on AROW, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $45 price target (21.7% upside). 1 of 1 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
AROW analyst price targets range from $44 to $46, a 4% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $45 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $33-$68 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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