AWI trades 26.6% below Wall Street's consensus target of $207.60.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes AWI achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 19.4x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 27 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $207.60, based on estimates from 27 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $163.97, this represents a potential upside of +26.6%. The company has a market capitalization of $6.93B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $190.00 to a high of $230.00, representing a 19% spread in expectations. The median target of $203.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 15 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,11 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, AWI trades at a trailing P/E of 23.2x and forward P/E of 19.4x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +14.3% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $176.87, with bear and bull scenarios of $111.43 and $233.04 respectively. Model confidence stands at 51/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TREXTrex Company, Inc. | $4.5B | $43.62 | $52.89 | +21.3% | Hold | 24.7x | 34 |
 OCOwens Corning | $9.9B | $122.88 | $176.00 | +43.2% | Hold | 12.2x | 43 |
 MHKMohawk Industries, Inc. | $7.3B | $119.65 | $123.83 | +3.5% | Hold | 12.2x | 32 |
 TILEInterface, Inc. | $2.0B | $34.94 | $45.00 | +28.8% | Buy | 14.7x | 12 |
 AMWDAmerican Woodmark Corporation | $701M | $48.09 | $47.00 | -2.3% | Hold | 20.9x | 10 |
 APOGApogee Enterprises, Inc. | $768M | $36.78 | $61.33 | +66.7% | Hold | 10.7x | 6 |
 VMCVulcan Materials Company | $31.7B | $244.40 | $314.63 | +28.7% | Buy | 26.7x | 36 |
 MLMMartin Marietta Materials, Inc. | $29.4B | $490.45 | $648.20 | +32.2% | Buy | 27.1x | 40 |
 EXPEagle Materials Inc. | $5.5B | $178.34 | $213.00 | +19.4% | Buy | 13.8x | 25 |
 LENLennar Corporation | $20.2B | $81.52 | $79.86 | -2.0% | Buy | 14.9x | 50 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying AWI stock.
The consensus Wall Street price target for AWI is $207.6, representing 26.6% upside from the current price of $163.97. With 27 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
AWI has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 27 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 15 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $207.6 implies 26.6% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 19.436x, AWI trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $207.6 implies 26.6% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $230 for AWI, while the most conservative target is $190. The consensus of $207.6 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $233 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
AWI is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 27 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 15 have Buy ratings, 11 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month AWI stock forecast based on 27 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $207.6, with estimates ranging from $190 (bear case) to $230 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $177, with bear/bull scenarios of $111/$233.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates AWI's fair value at $177 (base case), with a bear case of $111 and bull case of $233. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 51/100.
AWI trades at a forward P/E ratio of 19.4x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 23.2x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on AWI, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $207.6 price target (26.6% upside). 15 of 27 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
AWI analyst price targets range from $190 to $230, a 19% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $207.6 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $111-$233 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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