Upside case
Bull case
$123+110.4%
BBY would need investors to value it at roughly 19x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 9x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
41
analysts
15 bullish · 5 bearish · 41 covering BBY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
21
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$75
+26.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$46 – $123
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
41
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.3B
BBY price targets
Three scenarios for where BBY stock could go
Current
~$59
Confidence
65 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $59
Bear
$46
Base
$68
Bull
$123
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$68+15.8%
At 10x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$46-22.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push BBY down roughly 22% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Best Buy Co., Inc.
BBY · NYSEConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailJanuary year-end
Best Buy is a major electronics retailer operating physical stores and e-commerce platforms across North America. It generates revenue primarily through product sales — including consumer electronics, appliances, and computing devices — supplemented by services like installation, repair, and memberships. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive physical footprint for customer service and product demonstrations, combined with omnichannel capabilities that bridge online and in-store experiences.
Market Cap
$12.3B
Revenue TTM
$41.7B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
2.6%
BBY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.15/$1.10
Revenue
$8.8B/$8.8B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.28/$1.21
Revenue
$9.4B/$9.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.40/$1.31
Revenue
$9.7B/$9.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.61/$2.46
Revenue
$13.8B/$13.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.15/$1.10 | +4.5% | $8.8B/$8.8B | -0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.28/$1.21 | +5.8% | $9.4B/$9.2B | +2.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.40/$1.31 | +6.9% | $9.7B/$9.6B | +1.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.61/$2.46 | +6.1% | $13.8B/$13.9B | -0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$41.4B
-0.6% YoY
FY2
$41.3B
-0.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.76
+14.3% YoY
FY2
$5.83
+1.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.3B
FCF Margin: 3.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BBY beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BBY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $41.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Computing And Mobile Phones
45.0%
+1.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Domestic Segment
92.1%
-4.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Computing And Mobile Phones is the largest disclosed segment at 45.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 1.1% YoY.
Domestic Segment is the largest reported region at 92.1%, down 4.6% YoY.
BBY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $135 — implies +124.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
124.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BBY
11.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
54% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
BBY
11.6x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
41% discount
vs BBY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
11.6x
vs
5Y Average
14.0x
17% discount
Forward PE
9.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-52%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
-40%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
11.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-54%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
-41%
5Y Avg
14.0x
-17%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.6x
S&P 500
15.3x
-57%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
-42%
5Y Avg
7.5x
-12%
Price/FCF
9.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
-54%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
-35%
5Y Avg
16.0x
-39%
Price/Sales
0.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-91%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
-58%
5Y Avg
0.4x
-28%
Dividend Yield
6.43%
S&P 500
1.88%
+243%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
+200%
5Y Avg
4.38%
+47%
| Metric | BBY | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg BBY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.1x | 19.1x-52% | 15.2x-40% | — |
| Trailing PE | 11.6x | 25.2x-54% | 19.6x-41% | 14.0x-17% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.6x | 15.3x-57% | 11.4x-42% | 7.5x-12% |
| Price/FCF | 9.8x | 21.3x-54% | 15.0x-35% | 16.0x-39% |
| Price/Sales | 0.3x | 3.1x-91% | 0.7x-58% | 0.4x-28% |
| Dividend Yield | 6.43% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 4.38% |
BBY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBBY Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
BBY 18.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 8.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$41.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+0.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
22.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.04
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
18.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.9× FCF
~1.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
36.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
8.6%
Dividend
6.4%
Buyback
2.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$273M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.78
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
74.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
212M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBBY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
Best Buy's reliance on third-party manufacturers makes it vulnerable to supply disruptions, which could significantly reduce the inventory of new releases. If vendors fail to invest in necessary technology or production facilities, it could adversely impact revenue and profitability.
High Risk
Economic Conditions
Macroeconomic challenges, including poor consumer sentiment and inflation, pose a significant risk to Best Buy's sales. As electronics are often viewed as luxury items, economic downturns can lead to decreased consumer discretionary spending, directly affecting sales.
High Risk
Cybersecurity and Data Privacy
A breach of customer or company data could result in substantial costs, reputational damage, and potential litigation. Such incidents could severely impact investor confidence and lead to increased regulatory scrutiny.
Medium
Market Share Losses and Competition
Best Buy faces intense competition from major retailers like Walmart and Costco, leading to market share losses in key product categories such as TVs and appliances. This competitive pressure could further erode Best Buy's market position and profitability.
Medium
Financial Performance and Guidance
If Best Buy's financial results fall short of market expectations or if the company lowers its future guidance, it could lead to a decline in stock price. Investor sentiment is highly sensitive to financial performance metrics.
Medium
Dependence on Product Cycles
Sales growth at Best Buy is heavily influenced by product cycles for key brands. If the company misjudges demand or if growth drivers are temporary, it could lead to significant fluctuations in revenue.
Lower
Pricing Pressures
Best Buy faces pricing pressures from competition and rising costs, particularly in memory chips. These pressures could limit the company's ability to raise prices, potentially squeezing profit margins.
Lower
Employment and Personnel
High turnover rates in the retail sector pose challenges for Best Buy in attracting and retaining qualified employees. Changes in market compensation rates could adversely affect profitability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BBY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Emerging Profit Drivers
Best Buy's marketplace and advertising businesses are in their early stages but are expected to become significant profit drivers in the coming years, particularly by CY26/CY27.
Favorable Valuation Metrics
The stock is considered to have a compelling valuation, with a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio lower than its industry average and the S&P 500, suggesting it may be undervalued.
Positive EPS and Sales Growth
Analysts predict a turnaround in Best Buy's financials, with future EPS forecast to grow significantly and sales expansion expected to turn positive, driven by high-performance, AI-capable laptops.
Strong Shareholder Returns
Best Buy has a history of steady and increasing dividend payments, offering a yield higher than its sector average and the S&P 500, while also being a strong Free Cash Flow generator.
Operational Improvements Indicated
Recent earnings reports have shown improved profit margins, indicating effective cost management and pricing strategies, along with consecutive quarters of increasing comparable sales.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BBY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$58.69
52W Range Position
7%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$56.68
+3.5% from the low
52-Week High
$84.99
-30.9% from the high
1 Month
-8.58%
3 Month
-16.65%
YTD
-15.2%
1 Year
-12.0%
3Y CAGR
-6.8%
5Y CAGR
-13.3%
10Y CAGR
+6.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BBY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.1x
vs 20.4x median
-56% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-0.6%
vs +5.3% median
-111% below peer median
Net Margin
2.6%
vs 3.3% median
-21% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BBY BBY Best Buy Co., Inc. | $12.3B | 9.1x | -0.6% | 2.6% | Hold | +26.9% |
WMT WMT Walmart Inc. | $1.04T | 44.7x | +5.9% | 3.3% | Buy | +5.4% |
TGT TGT Target Corporation | $59.3B | 16.3x | +0.1% | 3.8% | Hold | -11.4% |
COS COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | $441.4B | 48.7x | +5.7% | 3.0% | Buy | +7.5% |
BJ BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | $13.9B | 20.4x | +5.3% | 2.7% | Hold | +13.2% |
DG DG Dollar General Corporation | $25.6B | 16.0x | +4.3% | 3.5% | Buy | +24.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BBY Dividend and Capital Return
BBY returns 8.6% total yield, led by a 6.43% dividend, raised 8 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 2.2%.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
8.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.2%
Dividend Yield
6.43%
Payout Ratio
74.9%
How BBY Splits Its Return
Div 6.43%
Buyback 2.2%
Dividend 6.43%Buybacks 2.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.78
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
8Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.6%
5Y Div CAGR
11.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$273M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
212M
At 2.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.96 | — | 2.0% | 7.8% |
| 2025 | $3.80 | +1.1% | 2.7% | 7.0% |
| 2024 | $3.76 | +2.2% | 2.1% | 6.9% |
| 2023 | $3.68 | +4.5% | 5.3% | 9.4% |
| 2022 | $3.52 | +25.7% | 14.4% | 17.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsBBY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 41 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $75, implying +26.9% from the current price of $59. The bear case scenario is $46 and the bull case is $123.
02What is the BBY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BBY is $75 based on 41 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $96 (+63.6% from today), and the low-end target is $65 (+10.8%). The base case model target is $68.
03Is Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) stock overvalued in 2026?
BBY trades at 9.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BBY in 2026 are: (1) Supply Chain Disruptions — Best Buy's reliance on third-party manufacturers makes it vulnerable to supply disruptions, which could significantly reduce the inventory of new releases. (2) Economic Conditions — Macroeconomic challenges, including poor consumer sentiment and inflation, pose a significant risk to Best Buy's sales. (3) Cybersecurity and Data Privacy — A breach of customer or company data could result in substantial costs, reputational damage, and potential litigation. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Best Buy Co., Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BBY will report consensus revenue of $41.4B (-0.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.76 (+14.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $41.3B in revenue.
06When does Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BBY is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Best Buy Co., Inc. generate?
Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) generated $1.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.0%. BBY returns capital to shareholders through dividends (6.4% yield) and share repurchases ($273M TTM).