Upside case
Bull case
$258+127.8%
CNI would need investors to value it at roughly 33x earnings — about 19x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
51
analysts
17 bullish · 3 bearish · 51 covering CNI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
31
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$112
-1.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$124 – $258
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
51
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $69.4B
CNI price targets
Three scenarios for where CNI stock could go
Current
~$113
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $113
Bear
$124
Base
$196
Bull
$258
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$196+72.9%
At 25x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$124+8.9%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push CNI down roughly 9% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Canadian National Railway Company
CNI · NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsDecember year-end
Canadian National Railway operates a transcontinental freight rail network across Canada and into the United States. It generates revenue primarily from hauling bulk commodities — petroleum/chemicals (~20%), grain/fertilizers (~20%), and intermodal containers (~20%) — along with metals, forest products, and automotive shipments. Its key advantage is its unique coast-to-coast network with access to three coasts — Atlantic, Pacific, and Gulf of Mexico — creating a natural monopoly in many corridors.
Market Cap
$69.4B
Revenue TTM
$17.3B
Net Income TTM
$4.7B
Net Margin
27.2%
CNI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-0.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.35/$1.37
Revenue
$3.1B/$4.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.33/$1.28
Revenue
$2.1B/$4.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.49/$1.43
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.31/$1.31
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.35/$1.37 | -1.5% | $3.1B/$4.2B | -24.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.33/$1.28 | +3.9% | $2.1B/$4.4B | -51.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.49/$1.43 | +4.2% | $3.3B/$3.2B | +0.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.31/$1.31 | +0.0% | $3.1B/$3.1B | +0.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$17.9B
+3.3% YoY
FY2
$18.5B
+3.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.12
+5.6% YoY
FY2
$8.91
+9.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.6B
FCF Margin: 20.7%
Next Earnings
July 24, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.40
Expected Revenue
$3.2B
CNI beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
CNI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $206 — implies +81.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
81.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CNI
21.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
13% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
CNI
21.2x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
17% discount
vs CNI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.2x
vs
5Y Average
15.2x
+39% premium
Forward PE
14.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
-23%
Industrials
21.2x
-32%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
-13%
Industrials
25.6x
-17%
5Y Avg
15.2x
+39%
PEG Ratio
2.46x
S&P 500
1.66x
+48%
Industrials
1.65x
+49%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-8%
Industrials
13.9x
+1%
5Y Avg
11.5x
+22%
Price/FCF
28.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
+39%
Industrials
20.0x
+44%
5Y Avg
20.6x
+40%
Price/Sales
5.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+83%
Industrials
1.6x
+262%
5Y Avg
4.6x
+23%
Dividend Yield
2.21%
S&P 500
1.91%
+16%
Industrials
1.21%
+82%
5Y Avg
2.77%
-20%
| Metric | CNI | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg CNI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.5x | 18.8x-23% | 21.2x-32% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.2x | 24.4x-13% | 25.6x-17% | 15.2x+39% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.46x | 1.66x+48% | 1.65x+49% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.0x | 15.2x | 13.9x | 11.5x+22% |
| Price/FCF | 28.9x | 20.7x+39% | 20.0x+44% | 20.6x+40% |
| Price/Sales | 5.7x | 3.1x+83% | 1.6x+262% | 4.6x+23% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.21% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 2.77% |
CNI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCNI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CNI generates $3.6B in free cash flow at a 20.7% margin — 11.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$17.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+0.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
44.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
37.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
27.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.69
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
20.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
11.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$363M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$21.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.0× FCF
~6.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
21.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.4%
Dividend
2.2%
Buyback
2.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.54
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
46.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
611M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCNI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Trade Policy Uncertainty
Potential 25% tariffs on cross-border automotive and industrial components pose a direct threat to CNI's intermodal and finished-vehicle segments.
High Risk
Geopolitical Risk
Management cites heightened geopolitical risk and macroeconomic uncertainty as primary challenges for 2026.
Medium
USMCA Review Impact
The USMCA review creates uncertainty, which could introduce new tariffs or disrupt existing trade agreements.
Medium
Macroeconomic Headwinds
Shifting trade policies and broader economic uncertainty may negatively impact CNI's revenue growth and margins.
Lower
Operational Resilience
CNI's strategic focus on safety and innovation may mitigate some risks, but external pressures remain significant.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CNI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Wide-moat business
CNI has a wide-moat business, indicating a sustainable competitive advantage in the North American freight industry.
Essential freight role
The company plays an essential role in North American freight, ensuring consistent demand for its services.
Dividend growth streak
CNI has increased its dividend for 29 consecutive years, demonstrating financial stability and shareholder commitment.
Unmatched network efficiency
The company's rail network is unmatched in efficiency, providing operational advantages over competitors.
Resilience to tariffs
CNI has shown resilience against tariff disputes, with temporary concerns not significantly impacting long-term performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CNI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$113.43
52W Range Position
71%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$90.74
+25.0% from the low
52-Week High
$122.48
-7.4% from the high
1 Month
+0.71%
3 Month
+13.06%
YTD
+13.1%
1 Year
+11.4%
3Y CAGR
-1.1%
5Y CAGR
+1.6%
10Y CAGR
+6.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CNI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.5x
vs 23.8x median
-39% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.3%
vs +4.7% median
-30% below peer median
Net Margin
27.2%
vs 21.9% median
+24% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CNI CNI Canadian National Railway Company | $69.4B | 14.5x | +3.3% | 27.2% | Hold | -1.0% |
CP CP Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. | $77.2B | 16.8x | +4.7% | 27.2% | Buy | +23.9% |
UNP UNP Union Pacific Corporation | $152.5B | 20.4x | +14.0% | 29.8% | Buy | +14.2% |
CSX CSX CSX Corporation | $84.8B | 23.8x | +2.0% | 21.6% | Buy | +1.1% |
NSC NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation | $67.4B | 24.7x | +2.5% | 21.9% | Hold | +11.8% |
WAB WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | $46.5B | 25.8x | +9.3% | 10.5% | Buy | +11.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CNI Dividend and Capital Return
CNI returns 4.4% total yield, led by a 2.21% dividend, raised 30 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 2.2%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
4.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.2%
Dividend Yield
2.21%
Payout Ratio
46.8%
How CNI Splits Its Return
Div 2.21%
Buyback 2.2%
Dividend 2.21%Buybacks 2.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.54
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
30Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.2%
5Y Div CAGR
8.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
19M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
611M
At 3.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.33 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.55 | +3.5% | 3.4% | 7.0% |
| 2024 | $2.46 | +5.9% | 4.1% | 7.4% |
| 2023 | $2.32 | +3.3% | 5.5% | 8.0% |
| 2022 | $2.25 | +14.6% | 5.9% | 8.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsCNI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 51 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 31 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $112, implying -1.0% from the current price of $113. The bear case scenario is $124 and the bull case is $258.
02What is the CNI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CNI is $112 based on 51 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $138 (+21.7% from today), and the low-end target is $99 (-12.7%). The base case model target is $196.
03Is Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) stock overvalued in 2026?
CNI trades at 14.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CNI in 2026 are: (1) Trade Policy Uncertainty — Potential 25% tariffs on cross-border automotive and industrial components pose a direct threat to CNI's intermodal and finished-vehicle segments. (2) Geopolitical Risk — Management cites heightened geopolitical risk and macroeconomic uncertainty as primary challenges for 2026. (3) USMCA Review Impact — The USMCA review creates uncertainty, which could introduce new tariffs or disrupt existing trade agreements. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Canadian National Railway Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CNI will report consensus revenue of $17.9B (+3.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.12 (+5.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $18.5B in revenue.
06When does Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) report its next earnings?
Canadian National Railway Company is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-24. Consensus expects EPS of $1.40 and revenue of $3.2B. Over recent quarters, CNI has beaten EPS estimates 42% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Canadian National Railway Company generate?
Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) generated $3.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 20.7%. CNI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.2% yield) and share repurchases ($2.1B TTM).