Upside case
Bull case
$280+4.4%
UNP would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 1x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
47
analysts
28 bullish · 1 bearish · 47 covering UNP
Strong Buy
1
Buy
27
Hold
18
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$287
+7.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$152 – $280
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
47
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $159.2B
UNP price targets
Three scenarios for where UNP stock could go
Current
~$268
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $268
Bear
$152
Base
$255
Bull
$280
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$255-5.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing UNP — at roughly 20x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$152-43.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 9x multiple contraction could push UNP down roughly 43% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Union Pacific Corporation
UNP · NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsDecember year-end
Union Pacific is one of North America's largest freight railroad operators, transporting goods across a 32,000-mile network spanning the western two-thirds of the United States. It generates revenue primarily from freight transportation fees — with key segments including industrial products (chemicals, metals), bulk commodities (grain, coal), and intermodal containers — each contributing roughly one-third of total revenue. The company's massive scale and irreplaceable rail network — which would be nearly impossible to replicate due to land rights and regulatory barriers — create a powerful natural monopoly in its service territories.
Market Cap
$159.2B
Revenue TTM
$18.5B
Net Income TTM
$5.5B
Net Margin
29.8%
UNP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.03/$2.91
Revenue
$6.2B/$6.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.08/$2.99
Revenue
$6.2B/$6.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.86/$2.86
Revenue
$6.1B/$6.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.93/$2.86
Revenue
$6.2B/$6.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.03/$2.91 | +4.1% | $6.2B/$6.2B | -0.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.08/$2.99 | +3.0% | $6.2B/$6.3B | -0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.86/$2.86 | +0.0% | $6.1B/$6.1B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.93/$2.86 | +2.4% | $6.2B/$6.2B | -0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$22.3B
+20.9% YoY
FY2
$22.2B
-0.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.05
+19.0% YoY
FY2
$11.37
+2.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.2B
FCF Margin: 22.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
UNP beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
UNP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $24.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Industrial
35.1%
+1.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
M [X]
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Industrial is the largest disclosed segment at 35.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 1.9% YoY.
M [X] is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $344 — implies +29.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
29.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
UNP
22.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
11% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
UNP
22.4x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
13% discount
vs UNP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
22.4x
vs
5Y Average
21.4x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
21.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+12%
Industrials
20.8x
+3%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
22.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
-11%
Industrials
25.9x
-13%
5Y Avg
21.4x
+5%
PEG Ratio
2.57x
S&P 500
1.75x
+47%
Industrials
1.59x
+62%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
+1%
Industrials
13.9x
+11%
5Y Avg
14.8x
+4%
Price/FCF
29.0x
S&P 500
21.3x
+36%
Industrials
20.6x
+40%
5Y Avg
25.9x
+12%
Price/Sales
6.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+107%
Industrials
1.6x
+309%
5Y Avg
6.1x
+7%
Dividend Yield
2.03%
S&P 500
1.88%
+8%
Industrials
1.24%
+64%
5Y Avg
2.19%
-7%
| Metric | UNP | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg UNP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.3x | 19.1x+12% | 20.8x | — |
| Trailing PE | 22.4x | 25.2x-11% | 25.9x-13% | 21.4x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.57x | 1.75x+47% | 1.59x+62% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.4x | 15.3x | 13.9x+11% | 14.8x |
| Price/FCF | 29.0x | 21.3x+36% | 20.6x+40% | 25.9x+12% |
| Price/Sales | 6.5x | 3.1x+107% | 1.6x+309% | 6.1x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.03% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 2.19% |
UNP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolUNP Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
UNP generates $4.2B in free cash flow at a 22.7% margin — 15.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$18.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-23.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
45.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
40.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
29.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.29
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
22.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
10.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$30.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.3× FCF
~7.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
42.4%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (15.2%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.7%
Dividend
2.0%
Buyback
1.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.7B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.45
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
45.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
594M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageUNP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Climate Change & Weather
Severe weather events such as hurricanes, floods, and extreme temperatures can disrupt Union Pacific’s infrastructure, causing line outages and operational interruptions. These disruptions may also affect fuel supplies and customer demand, potentially leading to significant revenue losses.
High Risk
Proposed Norfolk Southern Merger
The merger with Norfolk Southern faces regulatory uncertainty, lengthy review processes, and integration challenges. If approval is delayed or denied, expected synergies and upside will not materialize, potentially pressuring the stock price.
Medium
Labor Relations
Union Pacific’s workforce is largely unionized; disputes over labor agreements or failure to negotiate new contracts could trigger strikes or work stoppages. Such disruptions would impair operations and increase costs.
Medium
Fuel Prices
Higher fuel prices raise operating costs, while lower prices can negatively impact certain commodity segments like coal. Volatility in fuel costs directly affects profitability.
Medium
Commodity Price Fluctuations
Declining global export coal prices and the U.S. shift away from coal pressure Union Pacific’s revenue streams and profitability. Reduced coal traffic can lead to lower freight volumes.
Lower
Currency Fluctuations
Unfavorable currency movements can reduce cross-border freight flows, especially with Mexico, a significant market for Union Pacific. This can diminish revenue from international operations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why UNP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Operational Efficiency Gains
Union Pacific has focused on tightening its operating ratio, a key efficiency metric. Workforce productivity gains have enabled the company to move more freight with fewer employees, while a fleet modernization program is expected to cut operating costs further.
Unmatched Western Rail Network
As the largest freight railroad in the western United States, Union Pacific controls an extensive rail corridor that is vital for domestic and international trade. Its partnership with Mexican railroad Ferromex extends this reach into Central America.
125‑Year Dividend Legacy
The company has paid a dividend every year for 125 years, underscoring its commitment to shareholder returns. Coupled with a strong return on equity, this track record attracts income‑focused investors.
Billions‑Dollar Infrastructure Push
Union Pacific is investing billions in safety upgrades, network expansion, and technology to support future growth. A potential merger with Norfolk Southern could add significant optionality and scale.
Positive Analyst Consensus
A majority of Wall Street analysts rate UNP as “Buy” or “Strong Buy,” and recent reaffirmations from firms like Citigroup reinforce the bullish outlook. The consensus suggests upside potential beyond current valuation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
UNP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$268.23
52W Range Position
92%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$210.84
+27.2% from the low
52-Week High
$273.17
-1.8% from the high
1 Month
+9.24%
3 Month
+6.18%
YTD
+15.7%
1 Year
+25.8%
3Y CAGR
+10.3%
5Y CAGR
+3.4%
10Y CAGR
+12.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
UNP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.3x
vs 24.0x median
-11% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+20.9%
vs +2.0% median
+931% above peer median
Net Margin
29.8%
vs 21.9% median
+36% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UNP UNP Union Pacific Corporation | $159.2B | 21.3x | +20.9% | 29.8% | Buy | +7.1% |
CSX CSX CSX Corporation | $84.7B | 24.0x | +1.7% | 21.6% | Buy | -5.5% |
NSC NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation | $71.2B | 26.2x | +2.0% | 21.9% | Hold | +4.6% |
CP CP Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. | $77.2B | 22.8x | -2.2% | 27.2% | Buy | +7.0% |
CNI CNI Canadian National Railway Company | $68.6B | 14.0x | +3.9% | 27.2% | Hold | -10.3% |
JBH JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | $23.3B | 33.6x | +3.4% | 5.0% | Buy | -8.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
UNP Dividend and Capital Return
UNP returns 3.7% total yield, led by a 2.03% dividend, raised 19 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.7%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
3.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.7%
Dividend Yield
2.03%
Payout Ratio
45.3%
How UNP Splits Its Return
Div 2.03%
Buyback 1.7%
Dividend 2.03%Buybacks 1.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.45
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
19Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.3%
5Y Div CAGR
7.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.7B
Estimated Shares Retired
10M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
594M
At 1.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.38 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.44 | +3.0% | 2.0% | 4.3% |
| 2024 | $5.28 | +1.5% | 1.1% | 3.4% |
| 2023 | $5.20 | +2.4% | 0.5% | 2.6% |
| 2022 | $5.08 | +18.4% | 4.9% | 7.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsUNP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 47 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $287, implying +7.1% from the current price of $268. The bear case scenario is $152 and the bull case is $280.
02What is the UNP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for UNP is $287 based on 47 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $315 (+17.4% from today), and the low-end target is $245 (-8.7%). The base case model target is $255.
03Is Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) stock overvalued in 2026?
UNP trades at 21.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for UNP in 2026 are: (1) Climate Change & Weather — Severe weather events such as hurricanes, floods, and extreme temperatures can disrupt Union Pacific’s infrastructure, causing line outages and operational interruptions. (2) Proposed Norfolk Southern Merger — The merger with Norfolk Southern faces regulatory uncertainty, lengthy review processes, and integration challenges. (3) Labor Relations — Union Pacific’s workforce is largely unionized; disputes over labor agreements or failure to negotiate new contracts could trigger strikes or work stoppages. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Union Pacific Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates UNP will report consensus revenue of $22.3B (+20.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.05 (+19.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $22.2B in revenue.
06When does Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for UNP is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Union Pacific Corporation generate?
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) generated $4.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 22.7%. UNP returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.0% yield) and share repurchases ($2.7B TTM).