Upside case
Bull case
$471+48.5%
NSC would need investors to value it at roughly 39x earnings — about 13x more generous than today's 26x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
48
analysts
21 bullish · 3 bearish · 48 covering NSC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
21
Hold
24
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$332
+4.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$187 – $471
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
48
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
26.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $71.2B
NSC price targets
Three scenarios for where NSC stock could go
Current
~$317
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $317
Bear
$187
Base
$314
Bull
$471
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$314-0.9%
This is close to how the market is already pricing NSC — at roughly 26x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$187-41.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 11x multiple contraction could push NSC down roughly 41% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Norfolk Southern Corporation
NSC · NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsDecember year-end
Norfolk Southern operates a major freight railroad network across the eastern United States, transporting industrial and consumer goods. It generates revenue primarily from freight transportation fees — with merchandise (60%), intermodal (25%), and coal (15%) being the main segments — along with some commuter rail services. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive, irreplaceable rail infrastructure — a natural monopoly with high barriers to entry — and strategic network connecting key industrial regions and ports.
Market Cap
$71.2B
Revenue TTM
$12.2B
Net Income TTM
$2.7B
Net Margin
21.9%
NSC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.29/$3.31
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.30/$3.19
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.22/$2.76
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.65/$2.49
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.29/$3.31 | -0.6% | $3.1B/$3.1B | -0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.30/$3.19 | +3.4% | $3.1B/$3.1B | -0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.22/$2.76 | +16.7% | $3.0B/$3.0B | -0.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.65/$2.49 | +6.4% | $3.0B/$3.0B | +0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.4B
+2.0% YoY
FY2
$12.6B
+1.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$12.09
— YoY
FY2
$12.64
+4.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.2B
FCF Margin: 34.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
NSC beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
NSC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $12.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Railway Operating Revenues Market Group Merchandise
63.1%
+2.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Railway Operating Revenues Market Group Merchandise is the largest disclosed segment at 63.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 2.9% YoY.
NSC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $301 — implies -4.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
4.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NSC
24.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
In line with benchmark
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
NSC
24.9x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
In line with benchmark
vs NSC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
24.9x
vs
5Y Average
22.9x
+8% premium
Forward PE
26.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+38%
Industrials
20.8x
+26%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
24.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
-1%
Industrials
25.9x
-4%
5Y Avg
22.9x
+8%
PEG Ratio
2.44x
S&P 500
1.75x
+40%
Industrials
1.59x
+53%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.1x
S&P 500
15.3x
+5%
Industrials
13.9x
+16%
5Y Avg
14.7x
+9%
Price/FCF
33.0x
S&P 500
21.3x
+55%
Industrials
20.6x
+60%
5Y Avg
35.7x
-8%
Price/Sales
5.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+87%
Industrials
1.6x
+268%
5Y Avg
5.1x
+16%
Dividend Yield
1.70%
S&P 500
1.88%
-9%
Industrials
1.24%
+38%
5Y Avg
1.97%
-14%
| Metric | NSC | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg NSC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 26.2x | 19.1x+38% | 20.8x+26% | — |
| Trailing PE | 24.9x | 25.2x | 25.9x | 22.9x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.44x | 1.75x+40% | 1.59x+53% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.1x | 15.3x | 13.9x+16% | 14.7x |
| Price/FCF | 33.0x | 21.3x+55% | 20.6x+60% | 35.7x |
| Price/Sales | 5.8x | 3.1x+87% | 1.6x+268% | 5.1x+16% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.70% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 1.97% |
NSC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNSC Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
NSC generates $4.2B in free cash flow at a 34.5% margin — returns 2.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+0.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
51.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
32.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
21.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
—
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
34.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$15.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.7× FCF
~3.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
17.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.5%
Dividend
1.7%
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$534M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.40
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
42.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
225M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNSC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Safety & Incident Liability
Severe financial and reputational liabilities can arise from operational incidents, especially hazardous material spills. The 2023 Eastern Ohio derailment highlighted ongoing safety challenges and regulatory scrutiny. Norfolk Southern is accelerating safety investments and operational changes to meet industry standards.
High Risk
Regulatory & Legal Risk
Changes in regulations or oversight approaches can increase compliance costs and disrupt operations. Legal proceedings following incidents like the East Palestine derailment pose ongoing challenges. Merger regulatory hurdles add uncertainty, with potential stock price declines if approvals are delayed.
High Risk
Financial Health & Valuation
Norfolk Southern’s ROIC has been declining and falls below its WACC, indicating value destruction. The Altman Z-Score of 2.50 places the company in a “grey zone,” suggesting moderate bankruptcy risk. Elevated valuation concerns persist despite positive earnings reports.
High Risk
Merger Execution Risk
Proposed mergers are contingent on regulatory approvals and timely completion. Failure to consummate could trigger stock price declines, substantial termination fees, stranded transaction costs, and litigation. These outcomes could materially impact shareholder value.
Medium
Market & Economic Conditions
The rail transportation sector faces intense competition, with rivals offering attractive pricing or advanced solutions. Soft freight demand, including declines in rail carloads and intermodal volume, and persistent manufacturing sluggishness can reduce revenue. Macroeconomic factors such as higher interest rates and inflation further dampen shipping demand.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NSC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Sub‑60% Operating Ratio Target
Norfolk Southern is executing a plan to achieve a sub‑60% operating ratio within 3‑4 years, aiming to unlock 400 basis points of margin improvement through productivity savings and upcycle gains. This focus on efficiency is expected to drive year‑over‑year operating ratio improvements, with substantial gains anticipated in the latter half of 2024.
Cumulative $600M EBITDA Boost
Management projects cumulative efficiency improvements of approximately $600 million in adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2026, driven by productivity gains already contributing to earnings. Record fuel efficiency and reduced train accident rates further support this upside.
Merchandise Volume Growth via Jaguar Partnership
Merchandise volumes are projected to increase, potentially surpassing broader industrial production forecasts. The partnership with Jaguar Transport Holdings to manage a transload terminal and fund infrastructure upgrades is expected to support additional freight volumes.
Robust Balance Sheet and Dividend Yield
Norfolk Southern maintains a solid balance sheet with substantial cash reserves, providing financial flexibility. The company offers a quarterly dividend, delivering a steady income stream while reporting strong quarterly earnings that exceeded analyst expectations.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NSC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$317.25
52W Range Position
94%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$218.05
+45.5% from the low
52-Week High
$323.37
-1.9% from the high
1 Month
+10.14%
3 Month
+3.51%
YTD
+10.2%
1 Year
+45.1%
3Y CAGR
+15.3%
5Y CAGR
+2.0%
10Y CAGR
+13.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NSC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
26.2x
vs 22.8x median
+15% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.0%
vs +6.1% median
-67% below peer median
Net Margin
21.9%
vs 21.6% median
+2% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NSC NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation | $71.2B | 26.2x | +2.0% | 21.9% | Hold | +4.6% |
CSX CSX CSX Corporation | $84.7B | 24.0x | +1.7% | 21.6% | Buy | -5.5% |
UNP UNP Union Pacific Corporation | $159.2B | 21.3x | +20.9% | 29.8% | Buy | +7.1% |
CP CP Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. | $77.2B | 22.8x | -2.2% | 27.2% | Buy | +7.0% |
WAB WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | $45.9B | 25.5x | +8.3% | 10.5% | Buy | +7.6% |
RAI RAIL FreightCar America, Inc. | $252M | 16.2x | +6.1% | 6.2% | Hold | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NSC Dividend and Capital Return
NSC returns 2.5% total yield, led by a 1.70% dividend, raised 24 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.7%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
1.70%
Payout Ratio
42.3%
How NSC Splits Its Return
Div 1.70%
Buyback 0.7%
Dividend 1.70%Buybacks 0.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.40
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
24Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.9%
5Y Div CAGR
7.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$534M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
225M
At 0.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.70 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.40 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 2.7% |
| 2024 | $5.40 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.3% |
| 2023 | $5.40 | +8.9% | 1.2% | 3.4% |
| 2022 | $4.96 | +19.2% | 5.4% | 7.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsNSC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 48 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 24 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $332, implying +4.6% from the current price of $317. The bear case scenario is $187 and the bull case is $471.
02What is the NSC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NSC is $332 based on 48 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $360 (+13.5% from today), and the low-end target is $297 (-6.4%). The base case model target is $314.
03Is Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) stock overvalued in 2026?
NSC trades at 26.2x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NSC in 2026 are: (1) Safety & Incident Liability — Severe financial and reputational liabilities can arise from operational incidents, especially hazardous material spills. (2) Regulatory & Legal Risk — Changes in regulations or oversight approaches can increase compliance costs and disrupt operations. (3) Financial Health & Valuation — Norfolk Southern’s ROIC has been declining and falls below its WACC, indicating value destruction. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Norfolk Southern Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NSC will report consensus revenue of $12.4B (+2.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $12.09 for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $12.6B in revenue.
06When does Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for NSC is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Norfolk Southern Corporation generate?
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) generated $4.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 34.5%. NSC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.7% yield) and share repurchases ($534M TTM).