Upside case
Bull case
$2690+1318.3%
COF would need investors to value it at roughly 136x earnings — about 127x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
56
analysts
34 bullish · 4 bearish · 56 covering COF
Strong Buy
0
Buy
34
Hold
18
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$267
+40.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$157 – $2690
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
56
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $117.4B
COF price targets
Three scenarios for where COF stock could go
Current
~$190
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $190
Bear
$157
Base
$822
Bull
$2690
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$822+333.5%
At 42x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$157-17.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push COF down roughly 17% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Capital One Financial Corporation
COF · NYSEFinancial ServicesFinancial - Credit ServicesDecember year-end
Capital One is a diversified financial services company that operates primarily as a credit card issuer and consumer bank. It generates revenue through three main segments: credit card interest and fees (its largest segment), consumer banking services, and commercial banking operations. The company's key advantage lies in its sophisticated data analytics and technology platform—which enables targeted marketing and risk assessment—coupled with its direct banking model that reduces physical branch costs.
Market Cap
$117.4B
Net Income TTM
$2.5B
COF Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+10.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$5.48/$4.05
Revenue
$12.6B/$12.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$5.95/$4.49
Revenue
$15.4B/$15.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.86/$4.14
Revenue
$15.6B/$15.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.42/$4.50
Revenue
$15.2B/$15.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $5.48/$4.05 | +35.3% | $12.6B/$12.4B | +1.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.95/$4.49 | +32.5% | $15.4B/$15.1B | +1.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.86/$4.14 | -6.8% | $15.6B/$15.5B | +0.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.42/$4.50 | -1.8% | $15.2B/$15.3B | -0.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$77.4B
+11.8% YoY
FY2
$95.1B
+22.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$16.12
+315.1% YoY
FY2
$17.47
+8.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$27.7B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
COF beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
COF Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $8.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Interchange Fees, Contracts
79.9%
+32.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Interchange Fees, Contracts is the largest disclosed segment at 79.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 32.0% YoY.
COF Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $169 — implies -12.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
12.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
COF
47.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+87% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
COF
47.1x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+253% premium
vs COF 5Y Avg P/E
Today
47.1x
vs
5Y Average
19.4x
+142% premium
Forward PE
9.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-50%
Financial Services
10.4x
-8%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
47.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
+87%
Financial Services
13.3x
+253%
5Y Avg
19.4x
+142%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Financial Services
1.01x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-3%
Financial Services
11.4x
+29%
5Y Avg
7.8x
+88%
Price/FCF
4.5x
S&P 500
21.1x
-79%
Financial Services
10.6x
-57%
5Y Avg
4.0x
+12%
Price/Sales
1.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-46%
Financial Services
2.2x
-24%
5Y Avg
1.4x
+19%
Dividend Yield
1.72%
S&P 500
1.87%
-8%
Financial Services
2.70%
-36%
5Y Avg
1.79%
-4%
| Metric | COF | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg COF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.6x | 19.1x-50% | 10.4x | — |
| Trailing PE | 47.1x | 25.1x+87% | 13.3x+253% | 19.4x+142% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.01x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.7x | 15.2x | 11.4x+29% | 7.8x+88% |
| Price/FCF | 4.5x | 21.1x-79% | 10.6x-57% | 4.0x+12% |
| Price/Sales | 1.7x | 3.1x-46% | 2.2x-24% | 1.4x+19% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.72% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 1.79% |
COF trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCOF Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
COF generates 2.4% ROE and 0.4% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.88
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
2.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
1.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$57.4B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$6.4B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
2.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.2%
Dividend
1.7%
Buyback
3.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$4.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.27
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
72.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
619M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageCOF Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Acquisition Integration Challenges
Capital One’s recent acquisitions—Discover Financial Services ($35.3 B) and Brex ($5.15 B)—present significant integration hurdles. Execution delays, unfulfilled synergy targets, and higher-than-expected integration costs could erode projected earnings and dilute shareholder value.
High Risk
Credit Quality Deterioration
The bank’s exposure to near‑prime/subprime consumers and its auto‑finance portfolio is rising. Domestic credit‑card net charge‑off rates and delinquency rates have increased, while higher oil prices and weaker employment add pressure, potentially boosting default losses.
High Risk
Economic Headwinds
Macroeconomic stress—rising energy costs, geopolitical tensions, and a looming recession—could hit Capital One’s core low‑credit‑score customer base. Default rates among these borrowers tend to spike during downturns, threatening loan quality and profitability.
Medium
Regulatory & Legal Risks
Legal and regulatory challenges could undermine synergy gains from acquisitions and create a tougher operating environment. Uncertain regulatory outcomes may increase compliance costs and limit strategic flexibility.
Medium
Liquidity & Capital Adequacy
Restrictions on dividend payouts from subsidiaries and a lowered capital adequacy target may constrain Capital One’s liquidity and ability to return capital to shareholders. Reduced financial robustness could limit future growth initiatives.
Lower
Cybersecurity & Data Breaches
As a leading online and mobile banking provider, Capital One faces the risk of credit‑information theft through security breaches. While the firm has invested in cyber‑threat analytics and encryption, breaches could damage reputation and trigger costly remediation.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why COF Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Discover Acquisition Synergies ($2.7B)
The acquisition of Discover is expected to unlock $2.7B in synergies through cost efficiencies, network optimization, and revenue growth. Successful integration would enhance earnings power and position Capital One as a payments leader.
Vertical Integration & Closed‑Loop Network
By owning both issuer and payment network, Capital One can internalize transaction rails, bypass interchange fees charged by Visa and Mastercard, and build a closed‑loop system that creates network effects and switching costs.
Revenue & Earnings Growth to 2028
Analysts project revenue of $66.2B and earnings of $16.9B by 2028, reflecting strong growth potential from the expanded card portfolio and payment services.
Brex Acquisition for Business Clients ($5.15B)
The $5.15B purchase of Brex expands Capital One’s reach into business and tech‑focused clients, adding a high‑growth segment to its portfolio.
Strategic Payments Infrastructure Expansion
Capital One’s strategic expansion into payments infrastructure positions it as a vertically integrated financial services powerhouse, similar to American Express, and enhances long‑term profit margins.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
COF Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$189.68
52W Range Position
17%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$174.98
+8.4% from the low
52-Week High
$259.64
-26.9% from the high
1 Month
+2.97%
3 Month
-12.56%
YTD
-23.5%
1 Year
+0.9%
3Y CAGR
+29.2%
5Y CAGR
+4.3%
10Y CAGR
+10.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
COF vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.6x
vs 11.9x median
-20% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.8%
vs -14.2% median
+183% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
COF COF Capital One Financial Corporation | $117.4B | 9.6x | +11.8% | — | Buy | +40.9% |
SYF SYF Synchrony Financial | $25.6B | 8.0x | -14.2% | — | Buy | +22.7% |
AXP AXP American Express Company | $216.7B | 17.9x | +2.2% | — | Hold | +18.2% |
BAC BAC Bank of America Corporation | $404.3B | 11.9x | -17.8% | — | Buy | +15.1% |
JPM JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. | $834.2B | 13.9x | -6.4% | — | Buy | +9.5% |
C C Citigroup Inc. | $223.7B | 11.8x | -15.9% | — | Buy | +9.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
COF Dividend and Capital Return
COF returns capital mainly through $4.1B/year in buybacks (3.5% buyback yield), with a modest 1.72% dividend — combining for 5.2% total shareholder yield.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.5%
Dividend Yield
1.72%
Payout Ratio
72.1%
How COF Splits Its Return
Div 1.72%
Buyback 3.5%
Dividend 1.72%Buybacks 3.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.27
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.7%
5Y Div CAGR
21.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$4.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
22M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
619M
At 3.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.80 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.60 | +8.3% | 3.1% | 4.5% |
| 2024 | $2.40 | 0.0% | 1.1% | 2.4% |
| 2023 | $2.40 | 0.0% | 1.4% | 3.3% |
| 2022 | $2.40 | -7.7% | 13.5% | 16.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsCOF Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 56 analysts covering the stock, 34 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $267, implying +40.9% from the current price of $190. The bear case scenario is $157 and the bull case is $2690.
02What is the COF stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for COF is $267 based on 56 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $300 (+58.2% from today), and the low-end target is $213 (+12.3%). The base case model target is $822.
03Is Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) stock overvalued in 2026?
COF trades at 9.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for COF in 2026 are: (1) Acquisition Integration Challenges — Capital One’s recent acquisitions—Discover Financial Services ($35. (2) Credit Quality Deterioration — The bank’s exposure to near‑prime/subprime consumers and its auto‑finance portfolio is rising. (3) Economic Headwinds — Macroeconomic stress—rising energy costs, geopolitical tensions, and a looming recession—could hit Capital One’s core low‑credit‑score customer base. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Capital One Financial Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates COF will report consensus revenue of $77.4B (+11.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $16.12 (+315.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $95.1B in revenue.
06When does Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for COF is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Capital One Financial Corporation generate?
Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) generated $27.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. COF returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.7% yield) and share repurchases ($4.1B TTM).