Upside case
Bull case
$269+257.9%
SYF would need investors to value it at roughly 29x earnings — about 21x more generous than today's 8x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Synchrony Financial (SYF) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
41
analysts
25 bullish · 1 bearish · 41 covering SYF
Strong Buy
0
Buy
25
Hold
15
Sell
0
Strong Sell
1
Consensus Target
$91
+20.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$42 – $269
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
41
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $26.1B
SYF price targets
Three scenarios for where SYF stock could go
Current
~$75
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $75
Bear
$42
Base
$82
Bull
$269
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$82+9.4%
This is close to how the market is already pricing SYF — at roughly 9x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$42-44.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push SYF down roughly 45% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Synchrony Financial
SYF · NYSEFinancial ServicesFinancial - Credit ServicesDecember year-end
Synchrony Financial is a consumer financial services company that specializes in private label credit cards and installment loans for retail partners. It generates revenue primarily from interest income on its credit products — about 80% of total revenue — along with interchange fees and merchant discount revenue. Its key competitive advantage is deep, long-term partnerships with major retailers — like Amazon, Lowe's, and Walmart — which provide a captive customer base and predictable transaction volume.
Market Cap
$26.1B
Net Income TTM
$3.6B
SYF Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.50/$1.82
Revenue
$4.7B/$3.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.86/$2.26
Revenue
$4.8B/$3.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.07/$2.05
Revenue
$3.8B/$3.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.27/$2.22
Revenue
$3.7B/$3.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.50/$1.82 | +37.4% | $4.7B/$3.7B | +27.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.86/$2.26 | +26.5% | $4.8B/$3.8B | +27.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.07/$2.05 | +1.0% | $3.8B/$3.8B | -1.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.27/$2.22 | +2.3% | $3.7B/$3.8B | -2.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$16.4B
-14.2% YoY
FY2
$16.2B
-1.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.84
-5.4% YoY
FY2
$10.16
+3.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$9.8B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SYF beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
SYF Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $107 — implies +41.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
41.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SYF
8.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
68% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
SYF
8.1x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
39% discount
vs SYF 5Y Avg P/E
Today
8.1x
vs
5Y Average
7.1x
+14% premium
Forward PE
8.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-57%
Financial Services
10.5x
-23%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
8.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
-68%
Financial Services
13.4x
-39%
5Y Avg
7.1x
+14%
PEG Ratio
0.25x
S&P 500
1.75x
-86%
Financial Services
1.03x
-76%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
5.1x
S&P 500
15.3x
-66%
Financial Services
11.4x
-55%
5Y Avg
5.3x
-3%
Price/FCF
2.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
-88%
Financial Services
10.6x
-75%
5Y Avg
2.7x
-3%
Price/Sales
1.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-56%
Financial Services
2.3x
-39%
5Y Avg
1.5x
-6%
Dividend Yield
1.59%
S&P 500
1.88%
-15%
Financial Services
2.68%
-41%
5Y Avg
2.02%
-21%
| Metric | SYF | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg SYF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.1x | 19.1x-57% | 10.5x-23% | — |
| Trailing PE | 8.1x | 25.2x-68% | 13.4x-39% | 7.1x+14% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.25x | 1.75x-86% | 1.03x-76% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1x | 15.3x-66% | 11.4x-55% | 5.3x |
| Price/FCF | 2.7x | 21.3x-88% | 10.6x-75% | 2.7x |
| Price/Sales | 1.4x | 3.1x-56% | 2.3x-39% | 1.5x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.59% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 2.02% |
SYF trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSYF Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
SYF generates 21.4% ROE and 3.0% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.40
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
21.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$15.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$209M
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
21.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
12.8%
Dividend
1.6%
Buyback
11.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.19
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
12.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
348M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageSYF Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Changes
Changes in regulations, such as potential interest rate caps on credit cards or new CFPB rules, can significantly impact SYF’s fee income, operations, and strategic initiatives. A 10% interest rate cap proposal could fundamentally alter the risk‑based pricing model of the credit card industry.
High Risk
Economic Downturns & Unemployment
Economic slowdowns, recessions, or spikes in unemployment disproportionately affect SYF’s mid‑to‑subprime customer base, leading to higher delinquency and charge‑off rates. A decline in consumer confidence can also reduce borrowing and increase credit losses.
Medium
Partner Concentration
SYF relies on a few major retail partners for a significant portion of its revenue. The loss of a major partner could lead to stock price volatility and revenue disruption.
Medium
Operational Failures
Like any financial institution, SYF is exposed to operational risks, including system failures, inadequate internal processes, human error, and cybersecurity threats. Fraud risk, arising from failed internal processes or misconduct, also poses a threat.
Medium
Securities Fraud Investigations
SYF has faced investigations concerning potential violations of securities laws, stemming from concerns about its financial results. These investigations could lead to legal penalties and reputational damage.
Lower
Beta & Volatility
SYF’s beta of 1.81 indicates higher volatility compared to the broader market, suggesting potential for significant price fluctuations. This volatility can affect investor sentiment and capital costs.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SYF Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Significant Undervaluation vs Intrinsic Value
Intrinsic value estimates place SYF at $122.23, a 44% premium over its current price of $68.85. The stock trades at a P/E of 7.8x, below industry averages, and a PEG under 1, indicating strong value upside.
Positive Analyst Consensus
Consensus ratings skew heavily toward 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy', with few sell recommendations. Analysts project earnings growth for the coming year, reinforcing confidence.
High-Impact Retail Partnerships
The Walmart partnership is the fastest-growing program launch in SYF’s history, and CareCredit is now accepted on Walmart.com. Partnerships with Lowe’s and Amazon’s buy‑now‑pay‑later segment are expected to fuel loan growth.
Stable Loss Rates Enable Margin Expansion
SYF has maintained loss rates within targeted ranges, allowing for enhanced pricing and fee structures. This stability sets the stage for accelerated lending growth and improved risk‑adjusted margins.
Diversification into Large‑Ticket Lending
The new Project Card home‑maintenance financing positions SYF in large‑ticket, needs‑based lending, expanding its product mix and revenue potential.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SYF Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$75.15
52W Range Position
62%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$52.99
+41.8% from the low
52-Week High
$88.77
-15.3% from the high
1 Month
+8.50%
3 Month
-0.01%
YTD
-11.2%
1 Year
+40.7%
3Y CAGR
+40.0%
5Y CAGR
+10.9%
10Y CAGR
+9.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SYF vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.1x
vs 9.8x median
-17% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-14.2%
vs +11.8% median
-220% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SYF SYF Synchrony Financial | $26.1B | 8.1x | -14.2% | — | Buy | +20.5% |
COF COF Capital One Financial Corporation | $119.7B | 9.8x | +11.8% | — | Buy | +38.1% |
BFH BFH Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. | $4.1B | 8.0x | -6.6% | — | Hold | +3.4% |
ALL ALLY Ally Financial Inc. | $13.7B | 8.3x | -25.9% | — | Buy | +20.4% |
MA MA Mastercard Incorporated | $435.4B | 25.1x | +14.1% | — | Buy | +33.5% |
V V Visa Inc. | $611.6B | 24.4x | +12.6% | — | Buy | +13.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SYF Dividend and Capital Return
SYF returns capital mainly through $2.9B/year in buybacks (11.5% buyback yield), with a modest 1.62% dividend — combining for 13.1% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
13.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
11.5%
Dividend Yield
1.62%
Payout Ratio
12.0%
How SYF Splits Its Return
Div 1.62%
Buyback 11.5%
Dividend 1.62%Buybacks 11.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.19
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.5%
5Y Div CAGR
5.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
39M
Approx. Share Reduction
11.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
348M
At 11.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.15 | +15.0% | 9.9% | 11.3% |
| 2024 | $1.00 | +4.2% | 3.9% | 5.4% |
| 2023 | $0.96 | +6.7% | 6.9% | 9.4% |
| 2022 | $0.90 | +2.3% | 20.9% | 23.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsSYF Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Synchrony Financial (SYF) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Synchrony Financial (SYF) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 41 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $91, implying +20.5% from the current price of $75. The bear case scenario is $42 and the bull case is $269.
02What is the SYF stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SYF is $91 based on 41 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $100 (+33.1% from today), and the low-end target is $82 (+9.1%). The base case model target is $82.
03Is Synchrony Financial (SYF) stock overvalued in 2026?
SYF trades at 8.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Synchrony Financial (SYF) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SYF in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Changes — Changes in regulations, such as potential interest rate caps on credit cards or new CFPB rules, can significantly impact SYF’s fee income, operations, and strategic initiatives. (2) Economic Downturns & Unemployment — Economic slowdowns, recessions, or spikes in unemployment disproportionately affect SYF’s mid‑to‑subprime customer base, leading to higher delinquency and charge‑off rates. (3) Partner Concentration — SYF relies on a few major retail partners for a significant portion of its revenue. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Synchrony Financial's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SYF will report consensus revenue of $16.4B (-14.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.84 (-5.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $16.2B in revenue.
06When does Synchrony Financial (SYF) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SYF is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Synchrony Financial generate?
Synchrony Financial (SYF) generated $9.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. SYF returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.6% yield) and share repurchases ($2.9B TTM).