Upside case
Bull case
$342+476.3%
OXY would need investors to value it at roughly 82x earnings — about 68x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
52
analysts
25 bullish · 4 bearish · 52 covering OXY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
25
Hold
23
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$57
-4.6% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $342
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
52
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $58.8B
OXY price targets
Three scenarios for where OXY stock could go
Current
~$59
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $59
Base
$91
Bull
$342
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$91+54.0%
At 22x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation
OXY · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionDecember year-end
Occidental Petroleum is an international oil and gas exploration and production company with operations spanning the United States, Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. It generates revenue primarily from its Oil and Gas segment — which contributes the majority of earnings — along with its Chemical manufacturing and Midstream marketing operations. The company's key advantage lies in its extensive, geographically diverse asset portfolio and its leadership in carbon capture technology through its Oxy Low Carbon Ventures division.
Market Cap
$58.8B
Revenue TTM
$23.2B
Net Income TTM
$4.5B
Net Margin
19.6%
OXY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+23.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.87/$0.78
Revenue
$6.8B/$6.8B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.39/$0.30
Revenue
$6.3B/$6.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.64/$0.51
Revenue
$6.6B/$6.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.31/$0.16
Revenue
$5.1B/$5.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.87/$0.78 | +11.1% | $6.8B/$6.8B | -0.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.39/$0.30 | +31.2% | $6.3B/$6.4B | -1.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.64/$0.51 | +25.0% | $6.6B/$6.8B | -1.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.31/$0.16 | +88.0% | $5.1B/$5.5B | -7.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$23.0B
-7.7% YoY
FY2
$20.5B
-11.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.00
+29.4% YoY
FY2
$2.48
-17.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.2B
FCF Margin: 9.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
OXY beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
OXY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $22.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oil And Gas Segment
94.3%
-3.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Oil And Gas Segment
83.4%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Oil And Gas Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 94.3% of FY 2025 revenue, down 3.7% YoY.
Oil And Gas Segment is the largest reported region at 83.4%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
OXY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $47 — implies -20.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
20.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
OXY
36.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+47% premium
vs Energy Trailing P/E
OXY
36.9x
vs
Energy
17.1x
+116% premium
vs OXY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
36.9x
vs
5Y Average
16.9x
+118% premium
Forward PE
14.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
-25%
Energy
13.9x
+3%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
36.9x
S&P 500
25.1x
+47%
Energy
17.1x
+116%
5Y Avg
16.9x
+118%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Energy
0.53x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-53%
Energy
8.0x
-12%
5Y Avg
5.0x
+43%
Price/FCF
14.3x
S&P 500
21.1x
-32%
Energy
13.8x
+4%
5Y Avg
7.8x
+84%
Price/Sales
2.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-13%
Energy
1.6x
+65%
5Y Avg
1.7x
+60%
Dividend Yield
2.69%
S&P 500
1.87%
+44%
Energy
2.73%
-2%
5Y Avg
2.84%
-5%
| Metric | OXY | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg OXY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.3x | 19.1x-25% | 13.9x | — |
| Trailing PE | 36.9x | 25.1x+47% | 17.1x+116% | 16.9x+118% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 0.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.1x | 15.2x-53% | 8.0x-12% | 5.0x+43% |
| Price/FCF | 14.3x | 21.1x-32% | 13.8x | 7.8x+84% |
| Price/Sales | 2.7x | 3.1x-13% | 1.6x+65% | 1.7x+60% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.69% | 1.87% | 2.73% | 2.84% |
OXY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolOXY Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
OXY generates $2.2B in free cash flow at a 9.5% margin — returns 2.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$23.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-16.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
23.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
19.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
—
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$22.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
10.0× FCF
~10.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
16.6%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (4.7%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.7%
Dividend
2.7%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.59
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
67.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
992M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageOXY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Sensitivity
OXY’s profitability is highly exposed to crude oil prices; a sustained drop in WTI below $50 per barrel could sharply erode profit margins. The company’s lack of hedging means cash flow and EBITDA estimates are directly tied to market volatility.
High Risk
Debt and Financial Risks
OXY still carries substantial debt, partly from the CrownRock acquisition, and its debt‑reduction plan depends on strong operational performance and favorable commodity prices. A downturn in oil and gas markets could limit free cash flow, hindering debt repayment and increasing financial risk.
Medium
Technology Risk
The STRATOS Direct Air Capture (DAC) plant is a first‑of‑its‑kind industrial‑scale project; technical failures or cost overruns during startup could damage investor confidence in OXY’s Low Carbon Ventures segment.
Medium
Concentration Risk
After divesting OxyChem, OXY’s focus on the Permian Basin reduces diversification compared to integrated peers, exposing earnings to commodity market swings and increasing volatility.
Medium
Operational & Production Risks
Production shortfalls in the Rockies have led to downward revisions of financial estimates, and concerns over new well productivity and potential tax increases on the oil and gas sector could further impact financial viability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why OXY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Earnings Growth at Elevated Oil Prices
If oil prices stay above $80 per barrel, OXY’s P/E is around 11, and at $100 per barrel, earnings could reach approximately $10 billion annually.
Strategic CrownRock Acquisition
The CrownRock deal adds 1,700 undeveloped Permian locations, many of which are profitable even at lower oil prices, expanding OXY’s production footprint.
Cost Savings & Debt Reduction
OXY targets $500 million in sustainable cost savings by 2026, and the $9.7 billion sale of OxyChem to Berkshire Hathaway will cut debt and interest expenses.
Strong Asset Base in Permian
OXY holds high‑quality assets across multiple regions, with a dominant presence in the Permian Basin, giving it a competitive edge.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
OXY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$59.34
52W Range Position
72%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$38.72
+53.3% from the low
52-Week High
$67.45
-12.0% from the high
1 Month
-5.75%
3 Month
+31.60%
YTD
+40.0%
1 Year
+52.9%
3Y CAGR
-0.7%
5Y CAGR
+17.0%
10Y CAGR
-2.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
OXY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.3x
vs 9.8x median
+46% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-7.7%
vs +10.2% median
-175% below peer median
Net Margin
19.6%
vs 15.9% median
+23% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OXY OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation | $58.8B | 14.3x | -7.7% | 19.6% | Buy | -4.6% |
CVX CVX Chevron Corporation | $384.4B | 15.9x | +10.2% | 6.7% | Buy | -0.9% |
COP COP ConocoPhillips | $150.3B | 14.3x | +8.9% | 12.6% | Buy | +3.0% |
EOG EOG EOG Resources, Inc. | $75.4B | 9.8x | +10.7% | 23.4% | Buy | -2.1% |
DVN DVN Devon Energy Corporation | $31.7B | 9.7x | +21.8% | 15.9% | Buy | +5.5% |
APA APA APA Corporation | $14.7B | 7.5x | -2.2% | 16.1% | Hold | -21.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
OXY Dividend and Capital Return
OXY returns 2.7% total yield, led by a 2.69% dividend.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
2.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.69%
Payout Ratio
67.3%
How OXY Splits Its Return
Div 2.69%
Dividend 2.69%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.59
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
22.7%
5Y Div CAGR
3.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
992M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.96 | +9.1% | 0.0% | 3.9% |
| 2024 | $0.88 | +22.2% | 0.1% | 3.1% |
| 2023 | $0.72 | +38.5% | 6.0% | 8.4% |
| 2022 | $0.52 | +1200.0% | 4.9% | 6.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsOXY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 52 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 23 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $57, implying -4.6% from the current price of $59.
02What is the OXY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for OXY is $57 based on 52 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $72 (+21.3% from today), and the low-end target is $45 (-24.2%). The base case model target is $91.
03Is Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) stock overvalued in 2026?
OXY trades at 14.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for OXY in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Sensitivity — OXY’s profitability is highly exposed to crude oil prices; a sustained drop in WTI below $50 per barrel could sharply erode profit margins. (2) Debt and Financial Risks — OXY still carries substantial debt, partly from the CrownRock acquisition, and its debt‑reduction plan depends on strong operational performance and favorable commodity prices. (3) Technology Risk — The STRATOS Direct Air Capture (DAC) plant is a first‑of‑its‑kind industrial‑scale project; technical failures or cost overruns during startup could damage investor confidence in OXY’s Low Carbon Ventures segment. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Occidental Petroleum Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates OXY will report consensus revenue of $23.0B (-7.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.00 (+29.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $20.5B in revenue.
06When does Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for OXY is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Occidental Petroleum Corporation generate?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) generated $2.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.5%. OXY returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.7% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).