Upside case
Bull case
$171+229.2%
OXY would need investors to value it at roughly 31x earnings — about 21x more generous than today's 9x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
52
analysts
25 bullish · 4 bearish · 52 covering OXY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
25
Hold
23
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$62
+20.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$82 – $171
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
52
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $51.5B
OXY price targets
Three scenarios for where OXY stock could go
Current
~$52
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $52
Bear
$82
Base
$129
Bull
$171
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$129+149.8%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$82+57.4%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push OXY down roughly 57% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation
OXY · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionDecember year-end
Occidental Petroleum is an international oil and gas exploration and production company with operations spanning the United States, Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. It generates revenue primarily from its Oil and Gas segment — which contributes the majority of earnings — along with its Chemical manufacturing and Midstream marketing operations. The company's key advantage lies in its extensive, geographically diverse asset portfolio and its leadership in carbon capture technology through its Oxy Low Carbon Ventures division.
Market Cap
$51.5B
Revenue TTM
$23.2B
Net Income TTM
$4.7B
Net Margin
20.3%
OXY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+30.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.39/$0.30
Revenue
$6.3B/$6.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.64/$0.51
Revenue
$6.6B/$6.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.31/$0.16
Revenue
$5.1B/$5.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.06/$0.60
Revenue
$5.2B/$5.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.39/$0.30 | +31.2% | $6.3B/$6.4B | -1.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.64/$0.51 | +25.0% | $6.6B/$6.8B | -1.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.31/$0.16 | +88.0% | $5.1B/$5.5B | -7.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.06/$0.60 | +76.4% | $5.2B/$5.4B | -3.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$23.9B
+2.9% YoY
FY2
$24.3B
+2.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.62
-1.9% YoY
FY2
$3.69
-20.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.6B
FCF Margin: 15.4%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.88
Expected Revenue
$7.2B
OXY beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
OXY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $22.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oil And Gas Segment
94.3%
-3.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Oil And Gas Segment
83.4%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Oil And Gas Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 94.3% of FY 2025 revenue, down 3.7% YoY.
Oil And Gas Segment is the largest reported region at 83.4%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
OXY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $41 — implies -21.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
21.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
OXY
32.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+32% premium
vs Energy Trailing P/E
OXY
32.2x
vs
Energy
15.5x
+108% premium
vs OXY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
32.2x
vs
5Y Average
16.9x
+90% premium
Forward PE
9.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
-50%
Energy
12.5x
-25%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
32.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
+32%
Energy
15.5x
+108%
5Y Avg
16.9x
+90%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
-57%
Energy
7.8x
-17%
5Y Avg
5.0x
+30%
Price/FCF
12.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
-39%
Energy
13.8x
-9%
5Y Avg
7.8x
+61%
Price/Sales
2.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-23%
Energy
1.4x
+69%
5Y Avg
1.7x
+40%
Dividend Yield
3.08%
S&P 500
1.91%
+61%
Energy
3.47%
-11%
5Y Avg
2.84%
+8%
| Metric | OXY | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg OXY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.3x | 18.8x-50% | 12.5x-25% | — |
| Trailing PE | 32.2x | 24.4x+32% | 15.5x+108% | 16.9x+90% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.5x | 15.2x-57% | 7.8x-17% | 5.0x+30% |
| Price/FCF | 12.6x | 20.7x-39% | 13.8x | 7.8x+61% |
| Price/Sales | 2.4x | 3.1x-23% | 1.4x+69% | 1.7x+40% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.08% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 2.84% |
OXY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolOXY Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
OXY generates $3.6B in free cash flow at a 15.4% margin — returns 3.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$23.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-16.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
26.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
12.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
20.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.71
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$22.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.2× FCF
~6.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.6%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (4.7%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.1%
Dividend
3.1%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.59
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
67.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
995M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageOXY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Valuation concerns
The probability-weighted 10-year return of 5.7% CAGR falls below the inflation-plus-4% hurdle, and the bear-case return is negative.
High Risk
Dividend reliability
The 2020 dividend cut history raises concerns about the sustainability of future payouts.
Medium
Business divestiture risk
The sale of OxyChem, one of its core businesses, to Berkshire Hathaway may signal strategic instability or financial pressure.
Medium
Debt and acquisition risks
Historical struggles with heavy debt from a massive acquisition highlight ongoing financial vulnerabilities.
Lower
Market perception
Despite recent pullbacks, the underlying business strength is debated, with some viewing the dip as overblown.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why OXY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Low-cost Permian Basin operations
Occidental Petroleum's efficient operations in the Permian Basin provide a competitive cost advantage in oil production.
Diversified business model
The company's diversified operations across upstream, midstream, and downstream segments reduce reliance on any single market segment.
Leadership in carbon capture
Occidental's Stratos project positions it as a leader in carbon capture technology, aligning with future energy transition trends.
Strong institutional backing
Berkshire Hathaway's significant ownership (25%) signals strong institutional confidence in Occidental's long-term prospects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
OXY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$51.82
52W Range Position
45%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$39.26
+32.0% from the low
52-Week High
$67.45
-23.2% from the high
1 Month
-13.20%
3 Month
-11.24%
YTD
+22.3%
1 Year
+14.3%
3Y CAGR
-3.3%
5Y CAGR
+13.1%
10Y CAGR
-3.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
OXY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.3x
vs 7.5x median
+24% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.9%
vs +8.6% median
-66% below peer median
Net Margin
20.3%
vs 17.6% median
+16% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OXY OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation | $51.5B | 9.3x | +2.9% | 20.3% | Buy | +20.2% |
CVX CVX Chevron Corporation | $346.5B | 12.1x | +8.6% | 6.7% | Buy | +15.3% |
COP COP ConocoPhillips | $131.3B | 10.6x | +7.8% | 12.6% | Buy | +23.4% |
EOG EOG EOG Resources, Inc. | $69.2B | 7.5x | +9.7% | 23.4% | Buy | +14.7% |
DVN DVN Devon Energy Corporation | $26.2B | 7.5x | +14.3% | 17.6% | Buy | +39.5% |
APA APA APA Corporation | $11.7B | 5.1x | +3.7% | 17.8% | Hold | +16.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
OXY Dividend and Capital Return
OXY returns 3.1% total yield, led by a 3.08% dividend.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
3.08%
Payout Ratio
67.3%
How OXY Splits Its Return
Div 3.08%
Dividend 3.08%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.59
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
22.7%
5Y Div CAGR
3.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
995M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.96 | +9.1% | 0.0% | 3.9% |
| 2024 | $0.88 | +22.2% | 0.1% | 3.1% |
| 2023 | $0.72 | +38.5% | 6.0% | 8.4% |
| 2022 | $0.52 | +1200.0% | 4.9% | 6.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsOXY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 52 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 23 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $62, implying +20.2% from the current price of $52. The bear case scenario is $82 and the bull case is $171.
02What is the OXY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for OXY is $62 based on 52 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $75 (+44.7% from today), and the low-end target is $45 (-13.2%). The base case model target is $129.
03Is Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) stock overvalued in 2026?
OXY trades at 9.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for OXY in 2026 are: (1) Valuation concerns — The probability-weighted 10-year return of 5. (2) Dividend reliability — The 2020 dividend cut history raises concerns about the sustainability of future payouts. (3) Business divestiture risk — The sale of OxyChem, one of its core businesses, to Berkshire Hathaway may signal strategic instability or financial pressure. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Occidental Petroleum Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates OXY will report consensus revenue of $23.9B (+2.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.62 (-1.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $24.3B in revenue.
06When does Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) report its next earnings?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $1.88 and revenue of $7.2B. Over recent quarters, OXY has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Occidental Petroleum Corporation generate?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) generated $3.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.4%. OXY returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.1% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).