Upside case
Bull case
$176-14.3%
The bull case prices SPG at 26x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
37
analysts
16 bullish · 2 bearish · 37 covering SPG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
19
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$197
-4.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$105 – $176
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
30.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $66.8B
SPG price targets
Three scenarios for where SPG stock could go
Current
~$206
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $206
Bear
$105
Base
$151
Bull
$176
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$151-26.3%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$105-49.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 15x multiple contraction could push SPG down roughly 49% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Simon Property Group, Inc.
SPG · NYSEReal EstateREIT - RetailDecember year-end
Simon Property Group is a real estate investment trust that owns and operates premier shopping malls, outlets, and mixed-use destinations across North America, Europe, and Asia. It generates revenue primarily through tenant leases—collecting base rents, percentage rents based on tenant sales, and common area maintenance charges—with retail properties contributing over 90% of its income. The company's moat lies in its portfolio of high-quality, dominant regional malls in prime locations that attract premium tenants and shoppers, creating a network effect that's difficult to replicate.
Market Cap
$66.8B
Revenue TTM
$6.4B
Net Income TTM
$4.6B
Net Margin
72.5%
SPG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+50.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$2.95/$2.91
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.3B
Q3 2025
EPS
$3.05/$3.04
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.22/$3.09
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$9.35/$1.90
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.95/$2.91 | +1.4% | $1.5B/$1.3B | +9.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.05/$3.04 | +0.3% | $1.5B/$1.4B | +5.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.22/$3.09 | +4.2% | $1.6B/$1.5B | +6.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.35/$1.90 | +392.1% | $1.8B/$1.5B | +20.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.7B
+5.5% YoY
FY2
$7.1B
+6.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.66
-31.8% YoY
FY2
$10.42
+7.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.3B
FCF Margin: 35.4%
Next Earnings
May 11, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.49
Expected Revenue
$1.5B
SPG beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
SPG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $5.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Real Estate Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Real Estate Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2024 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
SPG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $222 — implies +9.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
9.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SPG
14.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
42% discount
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
SPG
14.5x
vs
Real Estate
24.3x
40% discount
vs SPG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.5x
vs
5Y Average
19.7x
26% discount
Forward PE
30.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+62%
Real Estate
26.5x
+17%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
-42%
Real Estate
24.3x
-40%
5Y Avg
19.7x
-26%
PEG Ratio
0.46x
S&P 500
1.75x
-74%
Real Estate
1.22x
-62%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.6x
S&P 500
15.3x
+35%
Real Estate
16.7x
+23%
5Y Avg
18.3x
+12%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Real Estate
15.7x
—
5Y Avg
15.6x
—
Price/Sales
10.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+235%
Real Estate
3.0x
+245%
5Y Avg
8.9x
+18%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Real Estate
4.67%
—
5Y Avg
2.86%
—
| Metric | SPG | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg SPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 30.9x | 19.1x+62% | 26.5x+17% | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.5x | 25.2x-42% | 24.3x-40% | 19.7x-26% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.46x | 1.75x-74% | 1.22x-62% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.6x | 15.3x+35% | 16.7x+23% | 18.3x+12% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 15.7x | 15.6x |
| Price/Sales | 10.5x | 3.1x+235% | 3.0x+245% | 8.9x+18% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 4.67% | 2.86% |
SPG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSPG Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
SPG pays 0.0% total shareholder yield with 49.9% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
85.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
49.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
72.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$14.16
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
49.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$823M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$29.1B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
12.9× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
68.8%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (7.6%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
326M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageSPG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
E-commerce & Consumer Shift
The continued growth of online shopping threatens physical retail spaces, potentially reducing foot traffic and demand for traditional retail properties. This shift can lower occupancy rates and squeeze rental income for Simon Property Group.
High Risk
Anchor Tenant Loss
Simon Property Group relies on anchor stores and large retailers to attract shoppers. The loss of major tenants or large-scale retailer bankruptcies can negatively affect property values, customer flow, and rental income.
Medium
Interest Rate Exposure
As a REIT, SPG is sensitive to interest rate changes; rising rates increase borrowing costs and can limit capital for new investments. Although a significant portion of debt is fixed-rate, short-term rate spikes still pose a risk to interest expenses.
Medium
Leasing & Vacancy Risk
Challenges in leasing newly developed properties or renewing leases at existing sites can lead to vacant space. Vacancies adversely affect rental income and overall property performance.
Medium
Geopolitical & International Exposure
SPG’s global presence exposes it to foreign tourism fluctuations, geopolitical instability, supply chain disruptions, and currency volatility. Changes in trade policies, such as tariffs, can impact retailer margins and sales performance.
Lower
Market Volatility
SPG’s stock exhibits a negative beta to 10-year Treasury yields, meaning it can decline as yields rise. Market volatility can lead to share price fluctuations independent of underlying business fundamentals.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SPG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust 2025 Revenue & Earnings Growth
Revenue rose 6.72% YoY to $6.36B, while earnings surged 95.32% to $4.62B. Lease income also grew 8.3%, and FFO per share has shown long‑term compounding growth post‑COVID.
Global Expansion via Strategic Acquisitions
SPG acquired the remaining 12% of The Taubman Realty Group in 2025, added luxury outlets in Italy, and opened premium outlets in Indonesia and the U.S., broadening its international footprint and diversifying property types.
High Occupancy & Leasing Momentum
U.S. mall and outlet occupancy hit 96.4% by end‑2025. Over 4,600 leases signed in FY2025 covered more than 17 million sq ft, signaling strong tenant demand and rent‑growth potential.
Attractive Dividend & Buyback Signal
SPG offers a 4.6% dividend yield and has authorized a share‑buyback program, reflecting management’s confidence in durable cash flows and signaling undervaluation.
Accelerated NOI Accretion from Pipeline
The company’s development pipeline is expected to deliver faster‑than‑anticipated NOI growth, driving future cash‑flow expansion and supporting the bull case.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SPG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$205.51
52W Range Position
95%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$155.44
+32.2% from the low
52-Week High
$208.28
-1.3% from the high
1 Month
+8.03%
3 Month
+2.96%
YTD
+11.7%
1 Year
+28.3%
3Y CAGR
+23.9%
5Y CAGR
+10.8%
10Y CAGR
-0.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SPG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
30.9x
vs 35.5x median
-13% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.5%
vs +5.3% median
+5% above peer median
Net Margin
72.5%
vs 23.5% median
+208% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPG SPG Simon Property Group, Inc. | $66.8B | 30.9x | +5.5% | 72.5% | Hold | -4.1% |
MAC MAC The Macerich Company | $5.8B | — | +5.3% | -19.4% | Hold | -3.7% |
CBL CBL CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. | $1.4B | 48.0x | +4.7% | 23.5% | Hold | — |
O O Realty Income Corporation | $59.7B | 38.5x | +11.5% | 13.5% | Hold | +1.9% |
REG REG Regency Centers Corporation | $14.5B | 32.6x | +4.0% | 37.4% | Buy | +1.3% |
KIM KIM Kimco Realty Corporation | $16.1B | 30.8x | +6.1% | 28.5% | Hold | +1.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SPG Dividend and Capital Return
SPG does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$8.65
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.4%
5Y Div CAGR
7.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
326M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.20 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $8.55 | +5.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | $8.10 | +8.7% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| 2023 | $7.45 | +8.0% | 1.1% | 6.3% |
| 2022 | $6.90 | +17.9% | 1.3% | 2.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsSPG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $197, implying -4.1% from the current price of $206. The bear case scenario is $105 and the bull case is $176.
02What is the SPG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SPG is $197 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $230 (+11.9% from today), and the low-end target is $181 (-11.9%). The base case model target is $151.
03Is Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) stock overvalued in 2026?
SPG trades at 30.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SPG in 2026 are: (1) E-commerce & Consumer Shift — The continued growth of online shopping threatens physical retail spaces, potentially reducing foot traffic and demand for traditional retail properties. (2) Anchor Tenant Loss — Simon Property Group relies on anchor stores and large retailers to attract shoppers. (3) Interest Rate Exposure — As a REIT, SPG is sensitive to interest rate changes; rising rates increase borrowing costs and can limit capital for new investments. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Simon Property Group, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SPG will report consensus revenue of $6.7B (+5.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.66 (-31.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.1B in revenue.
06When does Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) report its next earnings?
Simon Property Group, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-11. Consensus expects EPS of $1.49 and revenue of $1.5B. Over recent quarters, SPG has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Simon Property Group, Inc. generate?
Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) generated $2.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 35.4%. SPG returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).