HG trades 6.4% below Wall Street's consensus target of $36.33.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes HG achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 6.8x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 9 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of October 3, 2026, Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $36.33, based on estimates from 9 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $34.13, this represents a potential upside of +6.4%. The company has a market capitalization of $3.41B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $33.00 to a high of $39.00, representing a 17% spread in expectations. The median target of $37.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 6 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,3 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, HG trades at a trailing P/E of 6.0x and forward P/E of 6.8x. Analysts expect EPS to grow -13.4% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $43.94, with bear and bull scenarios of $27.69 and $57.90 respectively. Model confidence stands at 54/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RNRRenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. | $13.5B | $325.53 | $336.38 | +3.3% | Hold | 7.4x | 28 |
 ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd. | $32.7B | $93.60 | $113.50 | +21.3% | Buy | 9.9x | 34 |
 MKLMarkel Corporation | $21.5B | $1737.18 | $1950.00 | +12.3% | Hold | 17.6x | 15 |
 GLREGreenlight Capital Re, Ltd. | $489M | $14.75 | — | — | Buy | 29.5x | 3 |
 PLMRPalomar Holdings, Inc. | $3.4B | $126.49 | $158.50 | +25.3% | Buy | 12.6x | 11 |
 TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc. | $75.2B | $360.38 | $351.11 | -2.6% | Hold | 10.6x | 44 |
 WRBW. R. Berkley Corporation | $25.7B | $68.98 | $69.44 | +0.7% | Hold | 14.1x | 30 |
 HIGThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | $34.6B | $126.05 | $151.33 | +20.1% | Buy | 9.9x | 42 |
 AXSAXIS Capital Holdings Limited | $6.9B | $94.88 | $118.50 | +24.9% | Buy | 7.7x | 29 |
 ORIOld Republic International Corporation | $9.3B | $38.06 | $41.50 | +9.0% | Hold | 12.8x | 5 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying HG stock.
The consensus price target for HG is $36.33, close to the current price of $34.13 (6.4% implied move). Based on 9 analyst estimates, the stock appears fairly valued near current levels.
HG has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 9 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 6 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $36.33 implies 6.4% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 6.8259x, HG trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $36.33 implies 6.4% appreciation, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $39 for HG, while the most conservative target is $33. The consensus of $36.33 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $58 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
HG is moderately covered, with 9 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 6 have Buy ratings, 3 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month HG stock forecast based on 9 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $36.33, with estimates ranging from $33 (bear case) to $39 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $44, with bear/bull scenarios of $28/$58.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates HG's fair value at $44 (base case), with a bear case of $28 and bull case of $58. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 54/100.
HG trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6.8x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 6.0x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
HG appears fairly valued according to analysts, with a "Buy" rating and minimal upside to the $36.33 target. Consider your investment thesis and risk tolerance. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HG analyst price targets range from $33 to $39, a 17% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $36.33 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $28-$58 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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